Our friend, Jeffrey Brown, otherwise known to Peakniks everywhere as "westexas", recently spoke to the scientists and matheticians at Sandia Labs. A more intimidating audience I could not imagine. Still, at the end of the presentation, I think they were more scared of Westexas (or his message) than the other way around.
He sent me the link and I hope you will take the time to watch it. I understand that it is better in FireFox, which is how I viewed it. This is incredable stuff. Jeffrey and his team deserve a great deal of credit and our thanks.
For those of you not familiar with Jeff's work, please visit his Export Land Model at Wikipedia.
Yours for a better world,
Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com
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5 comments:
(From the non-regulating bureaucrat):
The ELM (Export Land Model) is indeed interesting, but it has "areas of weakness." The big oil exporters may change some of their behaviors: reducing their gasoline subsidies just because money will be tight all over the world, for one. We've already seen how fast the $4+ gasoline has impacted on and reduced demand for gasoline & diesel in the U.S. (though I think some of that will go back up soon). China & India cannot possibly continue at 10% growth per year forever. And how many more empty "hiding places for wealth" can Dubai build? So, all in all, there are lots of reasons to think these endless demand increases for everything worldwide does indeed, have an end. If the party is over, a lot less "spiked punch" is required.
Somebody needs to find the reason for this dramatic drop in crude oil prices (down more than 20% so far). Is it really a massive dropoff in econmic demand worldwide, or is it a political thing where Republican "rainmakers" are arranging for lower pump prices just before a close presidential election, or have Chinese energy imports dropped off a cliff to essentially bring the Chinese economy to a halt for the (smog-predicted) Olympics? If it never was the "speculators," it must be something ....
You can't really call the 20% drop in
the price massive or significant. The
real issue is why did it move above
ten/twenty dollars a barrel in the
first place ?
The price of oil should stay inline
with inflation .. unless of course
something happens outside the average
economists' thinking .. such as ..
Peak !
20% drop in one month is significant. CNN/Fortune magazine said the crude oil price drop is likely because of a wholesale massive dropoff in demand for stuff across the board, and if that is true, the U.S. economy is in REAL trouble.
Yes, anon #4. VMT = GDP, and vice versa....they move in lockstep (or have for the past 33+ years). The economy is collapsing, VMT is falling, oil goes with it.
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