Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Bearish Report, Oil Rises
The report today was somewhat bearish. SOMEWHAT (the gasoline inventories are declining far too fast; the refiners are going to have to make some spread soon), still the price closed the day up well over a $1, after having been down more than 1$. My take has been, and will continue to be, that we have put in a bottom (unless we get more threats from Obama to remove 50 million barrels from the SPR and put it on the market, or the oil import picture changes) in Oil prices for this cycle, and the energy equities as well. The system can't continue to have these kinds of draws in gasoline, and not be building stocks of heating oil and distillate for the coming winter. Further, the crude oil import number was, by my reckoning, IMPOSSIBLY high. And I don't think I am the only guy who thought so - ergo the higher price for crude.
Gold & Silver? Still in shock as to the price decline in silver... but, my bet is that we have put in a bottom, or are in the process, for these commodities as well.
I haven't gotten any "fan" mail lately about my call on Fannie Mai & Freddie Mac, Lehman, and the rest of the financials. Look, I am sorry if you went long, and stayed there. You f*^%ed up. There is NO HOPE for these companies, or this industry. Wishing (wishcasting) doesn't work; it is all over but the gun shot to the back of the head for these guys.
So... If the financial system is coming unglued... (and it is) what does that mean?
It means you gotta tune in tomorrow. My job as the kid's taxi driver calls, and I gotta hop.
Yours for a better world,
Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com
Posted by The Short Story Man at 1:15 PM