Monday, August 11, 2008

Oil Down in a Shooting War

Oil is selling off in the middle of a shooting war near an important pipeline.  This, despite the worst weekly selloff in YEARS.

This just ain't a good sign.

U.S. Oil inventories are 50 MM barrels below last years levels (all commercial products).

So, maybe this has nothing to to with the U.S.  Maybe, just maybe, that other big consumer of Oil, China, is also heading into recession.

Wouldn't that be fun?

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com


Anonymous said...

Yeah but China is still buying a lot of Buicks. How much oil do you really need to make a plastic wading pool?

Anonymous said...

And given the place (Georgia), and the pipeline (BTC) and the invading country (Russia) and the complete lack of interest in the oil markets today (crude down at least a buck), one would have to say that even if we knew what was going on, we'd be wrong. Damn.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

The worst commodity market sell off in a generation... is this the beginning of the end, or is this the equivalent of stock market 1987.

Anonymous said...

All I can say is OUCH! It's an absolute slaughter out there. I am shell shocked looking at my options statement. Down by 60% in just four weeks. I can't figure it out. The BTC pipeline is super important. It is under threat of destruction or at least of change of control. And oil is down? WTF

This just goes to show that its a good thing we don't know the future. Because if you had known the future (a shooting war in Georgia was about to happen) you would have bet the farm on oil going up. Had you done that you would now be broke. Sometimes this inside information is not such a good thing.

Best regards,
Chuck H.

Anonymous said...

Some wobbly information:

#1 The BTC apparently supplies Europe with oil from Azerbaijan, but I can't see how it impacts U.S. oil supplies directly. Neither Azerbaijan nor Georgia nor Turkey are in the top 10 of oil suppliers to the U.S. Europe should be concerned, I suppose.

#2 Does rich man Jeffers have a problem with all the government employees that have rushed to the Wyoming plane crash site of the wealthy surgeon whose personal plane crashed? Everybody complains when the government resources are used to help the average joe. The average rich joe, however ...

bdrube said...

China has cut way back on consumption to "clear the air" during the Olympics.

Wait 'till the games are over for a couple of weeks, then we'll see what the real current market price of oil is.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

"Rich Man Jeffers"? LOL!!!!!!

Bro, during the 1970's shitty economy when I was growing up, my father was a burner mechanic in the South Bronx, and with 7 children in a 1000 sqft house he would have loved to hear one of us called "Rich Man Jeffers"!!!! We were so poor... "How poor were you"? We were so poor we couldn't afford to pay attention!

"Rich Man Jeffers" LOLOLOLOLOL!!! I REVEL in the hilarity of that one.

I was 25 years old before I could afford my first business suit, and I lived in a neighborhood where I had to race the muggers and gangbangers back and for to the laundramat. But I was fortunate to live in New York, where anybody can put a slug in a subway turnstile and get to a place of opportunity. I am well aware that that is not the case for most kids in working class families out in the sticks.

My brother, Wall Street is the ULTIMATE meritocracy. Anyone with balls and brains who is willing to show up early and work has a shot at making a couple of bucks. I sincerely wonder if you would have wanted to suffer the indignities it takes to make your way here without the proper pedigree, which I CERTAINLY did not have. Believe me, I am still not well received at the University Club!

I guess comparing my lower (bottom of the barrel really, but I won't bore you with the details) working class start to where I am now... sorry, I still wouldn't call me rich. I consider myself sort of very upper middle class. Everything is relative.

But thanks for the laugh!!!! I needed that!!!

Greg T. Jeffers said...

One more thing, my brother.

Having money is not a permanent condition. I have been rich and poor, made it and blew it up, several times.

Working wealthy is very different from significant inherited wealth. And if you must continue to risk your wealth, there is a good shot you won't be wealthy for long.

Not that I am complaining, but it is not unlike the sword of Damocles. One moment everything is well, the next, well... not so well.

My good friend, Rabbi Mo Silver, once gave me a quote poster to put on my office wall (we worked at the same firm) that went like this:

“Every morning in Africa, a Gazelle wakes up. It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed.

Every morning a Lion wakes up. It knows it must outrun the slowest Gazelle or it will starve to death.

It doesn't matter whether you are a Lion or a Gazelle... when the sun comes up, you'd better be running.”

I get up every morning RUNNING.

What about you?

Anonymous said...

(Just got off my treadmill. 45 mins. 5.2 MPH. 8% grade. I don't like stopping for traffic. :) )