Thursday, August 21, 2008

Gallows Humor

Fannie & Freddie "have $223 billion of bonds due by the end of the quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg".  Know what that means?  It means that the U.S. Government Sponsored Entities are going to be Government Agencies sometime before the end of October.  No one is going to fund that rollover without an EXPLICIT guarantee from Uncle Sam.  It also means that housing will decline in price, in real terms, until the median income can support a mortgage that can service the median home.  Since "real wages" in the U.S. are falling, and will continue to fall for quite sometime, it means many years of economic pain for the U.S.

Fannie & Freddie should be made into Poster Children, and their poster should hang in the office of every politician elected in the U.S., every bureaucrat, and every government agency - local, state, and federal with the caption:  

"Unintended Consequences"

If Fannie and Freddie did not exist, housing would be affordable to Americans, and our economy and currency - our very way of life - would not be in jeopardy.  You can thank the socialist, do gooder, c&^% s*&cker, left wing jack asses in our political past for destroying the well being of their own constituents.  Because this is going to hurt the poor and working classes a great deal more than the rich.

(Ah, but there will always be some well educated, miscreant scumbag willing to take advantage of the poor and working classes to advance their political careers - Senator Chuck Schumer and Congressman Bart Stupak come to mind - by promising them freebies and love and care from Big Brother.  Never mind that we can't pay for it and the withdrawal symptoms are going to hurt far worse than the illness they were trying to assuage.  Never mind that the real money that funded their candidacies came from the very folks they were supposed to protect the "little guy" from.  Where was Chuckie Schumer when Stan O'Neal got his $167 MILLION severance package for destroying Merrill Lynch?  Where was the OUTRAGE?  Old Chuckie was not going to take Wall Street's excessive compensation on, he was getting to much money from the s&%t stains at the top.  Oh no, old Chuckie directs his ire at "The Rich" folks making over $200,000 per year (LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!! in NYC that ain't even middle class!).  But the guys stealing $100 MILLION per year got a pass.  Reminds me of the George Carlin routine about religion.)

But I digress...


THE wipe out in the mortgage market has not even gotten here folks.  I guess in some ways maybe this is some strange blessing in disguise vis a vie America's oil issue.  The brake on the economy is giving the U.S. an opportunity to fully address the "Oil Train", and that train has left the station and is due here quite soon.  What will we do with this window of opportunity?  

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America may be in complete denial about the certainty of a geological peak in oil supplies being  either here or near, but the authoritarian regimes around the globe are most certainly not. These regimes do not need to hurry the process.  This is more like an anaconda slowly squeezing its prey than tiger tearing its dinner to pieces.  

The financial squeeze play that the Treasury and the Fed tried to engineer is over.  The other side of the "squeeze" is now firmly in control.  The equity markets are likely to be an extremely challenging place to be long, with the possible exception of energy.  Of course, even energy equities can get dragged down in all of this...

It is going to be an interesting winter in terms of heating oil supplies.  Hunger and cold are far more politically explosive than freedom fries and gay marriage.  At $5 per gallon for heating oil, there are going to be some cold, pissed off folks in the north country.  

Good thing the election is in early November before it gets too cold.  I would love to hear how Obama's "hope and change" or McCain's "service and experience" pitch works out if the election were held in mid February.

BTW, did I mention that Oil put a low in?  


Yours for a better world,

Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com




7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your comment, "If Fannie and Freddie did not exist ... our very way of life - would not be in jeopardy. You can thank the ... left wing ... this is going to hurt the poor and working classes a great deal more than the rich." contains a kernel of truth: Rich vs. Poor

Political Left and Right shadow-boxing is a distraction from the real fight: rich vs. poor. Since citizens became consumers, our politicians have all been bought and paid for. Freedoms in this country are available for nut-cases and radicals of all flavors, but anyone who threatens the rich is shot dead. Same thing happened in Germany - left wing radicals were executed, right wing radicals were funded by corporations.
Rich Vs. Poor explains a lot.

In any case, I enjoy your financial- only comments a lot more than your knee-jerk emotional/political conditioning (but it is entertaining). Keep up the good work!

Anonymous said...

Hey, anonymous,Interesting that you think the National SOCIALIST Workingman's party is RIGHT wing. List the socialist leaders of the 20th century and the biggest thugs and mass murderers of the 20th century and you get pretty much the same list. Don't begin to say that the left is for the poor. They just want the same two things from everyone. Everything you earn and everything you earn. Then, you are helpless. Not that I think the far right is so hot either. It's about those who think that a level playing field and equality of opportunity are good against those who want to accumulate all power for themselves. Its ultimately a moral issue. The economics will take care of themselves. Let freedom ring.

Just a note, at 16c/kwHr as we pay in the People's Republic of Massachusetts, electric space heaters break even with oil heat at $5.45/gallon assuming 85% efficiency for the oil furnace

Anonymous said...

(From the non-regulating, pro-capitalist bureaucrat):

Extremes aside, this isn't left and this isn't right. This whole thing was started by capitalists who found a neat, new way to squeeze money out of people who should never have gotten mortgages in the first place. Greenspan provided the cheap credit. Bush provided the lack of regulation. The poor provided the desperation for a middle-class existence. Everyone was doing what was in their best interest. And because of government immobilized by psychotic conspiracy nonsense and the need for taxpayers to have someone to hate, this whole thing, which is diverting us from addressing the oil problem, has the very real possibility of burying us in debt even more. It is bad enough that America can't possibly survive making nothing and doing nothing but giving each other loans. It is nothing short of tragic, and I don't see any way out of it. So, I'm stocking the basement and crossing my fingers.

Anonymous said...

Yo, Massachusetts, left and right are two sides of the same coin. The point is that rich people buy Dems and Repubs to do their dirty work. Simple minded fools argue liberal vs. conservative while the rich laugh all the way to the bank.

J said...

Great blog! (From the perpective of someone who has been aware of Peak Oil for 4+ years.)

I place your work in the same category as Chris Nelder's (http://www.energyandcapital.com/). Keep it up!

Advice: do a little advertising in The Oil Drum, at least get your blog on the blogroll. It's a shame it took so long to find it.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

HA! "Knee Jerk emotional/political conditioning"... spoken like the scion of wealth and privilege that you are.

Yes, it has always been rich vs poor - and as an experienced member of the "poor", I can tell you clearly that our "representatives" never gave a good fart about us. I am 47, and by any measure wealthy, but more than half of my life was spent on the very wrong side of the tracks.

Why is it that whenever we elect or appoint someone to represent the "poor", the appointee or electee is a trust fund slapped ass jag off?

Spare me your elitist condescension - go be amused by another blog.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Dear bureaucrat:

Well said! But the blame goes back a lot farther than GWB & Co.

Finally, I don't go for the "Big banks tricked the little guy into a loan he could not afford" B.S.

Ever underwrite a loan? I have. It is just the borrower and the loan officer. The loan officer is, for the most part, just trying to make a living. The borrower? More full of shit than a retired hooker in white on her wedding day. Would rather lie than if the truth was twice as good.