Whoops

Whoops!

The ISM number came in today... and it was an unmitigated disaster.

My call on escaping a recession, even in nominal terms, appears to be on very thin ice.

It is important in trading and investing to have the ability to change your mind, admit you are wrong, and regroup. Small loses are never a problem - BIG losses are the problem. Insisting that you are correct in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary will lead you to ruin.

Accordingly, it would appear that the odds of a recession, as measured by the data collecting agencies of the Federal Government, are now well above 50%. This is especially troubling because our government regularly understates the GDP deflator (inflation).

Yours for a better world,

mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com