"In the Halls of Justice the only justice is in the halls." - Lenny Bruce

One of the "unintended consequences" of any significant energy supply shortfall is sure to be an explosion of litigation - at least initially.

I know a good many of my readers are Wall Street brokers and salespeople as I have exchanged email with many of them. If you are in this line of work you know that everybody loves you when you are right, but they develop amnesia when a trade, or an entire market, goes wrong. An energy driven market crack-up is virtually assured in the coming years, and I think not that far off. No, I don't know exactly what it will look like - hyper-inflation, deflation, currency collapse, earnings collapse, etc.. - but I can guarantee you that whatever it is, it will be your fault and you will be subject to litigation. So get your ducks in a row right now.

I have begun to see disclosure language in some of the mutual fund company's prospectuses; a client faxed me a couple of pages from The Gabelli Funds with language stating that the U.S. needs a Manhattan Project style government funded project, among other things, to solve the problem (and you know that I do not perceive this as a "problem" to be solved, but rather a "condition" to be lived with, while we will solve the myriad smaller "problems" that were solved for us with cheap energy sources) in one of their prospectuses.

Everybody will be looking for SOMEBODY to blame. If you are a broker, financial planner, investment advisor, etc... you will definitely get your share of blame, and litigation. Think hard about this, it is worth the time. Document risk disclosure regarding energy shortages, and perhaps diversify into companies and industries that might/would benefit in the environment I envision. Don't risk dollars to make pennies, and that is exactly what business as usual in our industry means.

I am sure that this problem will present itself to other professions... you will have to interpret the implications for your particular business or profession.

I can tell you that we are very concerned about this on the brokerage side of our business and are making changes accordingly. I think it will really pay to be proactive and not reactive. Most of us cannot claim "Force Majeure", although a more perfect example of that term I cannot think of.

Yours for a better world,


Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com