Whither Oil Prices?

U.S. oil supply and consumption data argue heavily against a U.S. recession. Look, I don't make this stuff up. Just click the link and look at the supply/consumption data yourself. If the U.S. were in a recession, would year over year oil consumption 1/07 vs. 1/08 be up roughly 1.4 %? Not unless we had one REALLY big oil spill.

Further, I was the dummy that said last year we would be in a recession by the end of '07, or early '08. I was close, but no cigar. Recessions are caused by tight money policies of the Federal Reserve and Fiscal discipline on the part of the Federal Government. It is an election year, and if anything, our officials cannot be accused of being tight with money or very disciplined with their spending habits.

On another note...

For every buyer, there is a seller. They can't both be right. Welcome to the markets - I don't care if it is stock on the NYSE, corn at the local farmer's co-op, or the corner newspaper guy. Even in positive sum markets, on any individual trade your win is somebody else's loss.

There are also 2 sides to every investment decision. Stay with me...

The IEA claims that there is no immanent peak in oil production. They blame the lack of production on a lack of investment... Now, I ask you: If you were an oil company, would you increase investment in exploration & production if you felt the oil was not there to be found? Would you buy your dog a kitty cat scratching post?

Somebody get those guys at the IEA a V-8!

Yours for a better world,

mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com