My Epiphany

I spent today presenting our new hedge fund to investors. I liken it to a Broadway actor on his 7,000th performance of "Cats". I have said this stuff so much, I am starting to get sick of hearing it myself. Still, each time, the presentation requires that I sit through the initial "But I thought we had plenty of Oil" or "but what about nuclear?" And I have to patiently disabuse them of their (from my view, that is. Still, I recognize that my vision might not be completely accurate) misinformed opinions... ugh!!!

So here was my epiphany:

I was speaking with a businessman who have I great deal of respect for. This guy was up to speed on all the issues - and was not concerned in the least. Why not?

And then it occurred to me - He was not a trader, investor, broker, etc... His concern was payroll this friday, the health insurance bill, and the rent. In his business, he has never been required to forecast economic conditions, interest rates, earnings... 6, 12, 18 months from now. He has never come to work and watched his life's work get destroyed because some finance minister somewhere just announced a currency devaluation, or there was an assassination, or hurricane, or locusts, drought... WHATEVER rock that people in our industry did not turn over that led to their demise (OK, I am being dramatic here, but work with me. In our business, you are only as good as your last trade, your last quarterly performance, your last good/bad call... all of which is normal in the securities industry. Now throw in the fact that you put essentially ALL of your assets into the portfolio... Just ask the guys at the Amaranth Hedge Funds). No, this fellow was not a corporate CEO (those guys worry holes in their stomach, too), he was a successful private business owner. Never in his life did he draw out a forecast past the end of this quarter. He was too busy surviving here, and now, and living the good life.

If he were REQUIRED to draw out a 5 year plan, he might feel differently, or if he had ever lost everything he had on a bad bet, or if he had watched an entire department get walked out the front door by security guards who then unceremoniously cut up the newly departed's corporate IDs with a pair of scissors... but this was not in his experience. He was focusing on today's sales, next week's bills, and this weekend's beer.

And I don't blame him.

99% of the people do not have the resources to put themselves in a position to benefit from the U.S.'s energy pickle, and the 1% that does have the needed resources might make the wrong decisions regarding how best to handle the opportunities and risks.

Maybe it IS better not to know.

Yours for a better ignorance is bliss world,

mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com