Saturday, February 2, 2008

The Euro is the next sucker's bet

For those who have been reading my stuff for the last few years you know I have been telling people that the U.S. $ is doomed. I gotta lay off the hyperbole.

The dollar will continue to lose purchasing power, but not as fast as the Euro will from this point onward. Keep that in mind when listening to the "international play" coming at you from Wall Street. My good friend and fellow hedge fund manager Dr. Lalani likes the currency's of the oil exporters (with the exception of Mexico), and I couldn't agree more. But the Euro makes up more than half the Dollar index, and any move down versus the dollar will increase the index.

Also, as I have said many, many, many times: "Markets zig and zag, they don't zig and zig". We have had one hell of a ZIG in precious metals (and other commodities, and one hell of a ZAG in U.S. equities and the U.S. Dollar. Nothing moves in a straight line. NOTHING. After the zig comes the zag (calling the turn is bit tricky). If you can't call the turn, at least don't zig after a market has been zigging. Finally, I am not suggesting that you short ANYTHING. Shorting requires EXTREME discipline, something the average individual investor is sorely lacking in. What I am suggesting is that on any pull back in precious metals that that would be the time to add to positions.

This is not to say that I think the commodity bull has stopped running - far from it. But silver and gold are NOTORIOUSLY volatile. I would not be surprised to see each of them retrace 50% form their eventual highs. The problem is calling the high, and at that I am no better than you are.






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