Serious Agricultural Troubles

For several years I have been writing about significant challenges to the world food production system. In my post before this one I lay out the simple equation that is at the base of the problem. Now here is the CEO of the world's largest fertilizer company telling the media, and having it reported on the FRONT PAGE of Bloomberg News, MSNBC, and the Washington Post, that the world could have FAMINE if the world does not continue to produce record crops of wheat, corn, rice, and soy beans each and every year, from this point forward. (Click link to read article)

I am very relieved to see the CEO of Potash Corp. come clean on what the world is facing. When I began to suggest this to my clients, partners, and prospects, well, not a few rolled their eyes and thought I had lost it.  I have not lost it - my problem is that I CAN COUNT.  And so can Potash's CEO.

Food, for the most part, like money, does not grow on trees.  You need LAND, LABOR, WATER, FERTILIZER, PESTICIDES, TRACTOR EQUIPMENT.  Well, we have NO MORE farm land, and we have decreasing inputs of energy that labor, fertilizer, pesticides, and equipment requires...  AND

Inventories of food grains are at 40 year lows, and in days of supply food grain inventories are at the lowest level EVER.

This is serious stuff.

As farmers cut back on corn acres planted to increase wheat and soy bean acres planted look for corn to shoot the moon over the next year.  Farmers are going to plant what they perceive will yield them the most dollars per acres, and with wheat and soy beans at today's prices... But we already have very low inventories of corn.  If corn acres planted falls to wheat and soy beans, corn production falls.  Ergo, my money is on corn. 

Yours for a better world (with kitchen gardens in every yard),

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com