Wheat!!! I have been writing about the coming wheat shortage for 2 years. FINALLY, the USDA and Goldman Sachs are coming around to my way of thinking.
Here is a simple equation: Grain to bio-fuels - farm land lost to deveopment + higher fertilizer costs + higher diesel costs + 75 million more people each year wanting (can you imagine) to eat = WHEAT SHORTAGES!!!! Wanna see me do the same trick with corn?
You ain't seen nothing yet as that term applies to wheat, corn, soy beans, and rice. Prices are going much higher, so much so that this will become a major political issue - one that will make $8 gasoline seem trite.
You heard it here. In a few years you will hear it from Goldman Sachs.
Yours for a better world,
Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com
2 comments:
I've recently taken an interest in the 1950's for examples of production and consumption numbers, and other metrics, before cheap and plentiful oil became such a distortion in the basics of our global and local economy.
At that time the average family spent 30% of its income on food, compared to today at 15%. But food then was more local, seasonal and basic, today's food has a much higher 'fuel' input; production, processing and transportation.
Another interesting aspect is housing costs, which have doubled as a percentage of income (9% to 19%). If food costs more, then housing costs will have to fall to maintain long-term affordability.
Of course, the world population has more than doubled since 1950!
Donal:
I have seen reports of higher historical costs and lower current food costs, but your point stands. Unfortunately, the problem with food will not be cost, it will be availability.
Post a Comment