Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Gary Johson, Greece, Oil

In case you missed it, here is the link to Governor Gary Johnson's viral response to the Republican "debate". I must say, the Libertarian/Constitutionalist view point would seem ascendent. His views on abortion (government out of the equation, including government funding), Medicare (back to the states before it destroys the Feds), well, not so much on immigration..., Energy (free market not government)

Here is a link to my webcast rant on the War on Drugs and prison/industrial complex. Its 15 minutes. With practice, I will get the hang of it...


The sell off in equities and Oil today was blamed in the media on Greece. I will reserve judgment on that... I increased shorts and cut longs... my sense remains that one big deflationary wave is in the cards... weather  or not this is it I cannot say... but when it comes, you don't want to stand in front of the avalanche, and you want to be there to pick up Oil if/when that comes to pass.


westexas said...

Following are what we show for Global Net Exports (GNE), using the updated data, with revisions, through 2010:

Global Net Export Data*

2002: 39.1 mbpd
2003: 41.6
2004: 44.8
2005: 45.5
2006: 45.5
2007: 44.6
2008: 44.5
2009: 42.3
2010: 42.6

*Top 33 net exporters with 100,000 bpd or more of net exports in 2005, BP + Minor EIA data (99% of global net oil exports)

Saudi net oil exports were down from 7.3 mbpd in 2009 to 7.2 in 2010. Note that Russian net exports have been at or below 7.1 mbpd since 2007. The (2005) top five (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE) went from 23.7 mbpd in 2005 to 20.8 in 2010. So, the (2005) top five fell by about three mbpd over a five year period, while the bottom 28 showed basically no change from 2005 to 2010.

Chindia's combined net oil imports went from 5.1 mbpd in 2005 to 7.5 mbpd (inclusive of the rather curious increase in reported Chinese production). In any case, their combined net oil imports, as a percentage of GNE, went from 11.2% in 2005 to 17.6% in 2010. At the 2005 to 2010 rate of increase in their net imports as a percentage of GNE, Chindia would consume 100% of GNE some time around 2030.

So Available Net Exports (ANE), i.e., GNE not consumed by Chindia, fell from 40.4 mbpd in 2005 to 35.1 mbpd in 2010. I'm projecting that ANE will be down to about 27 to 30 mbpd in 2015.

My view is that the US is well on its way to "freedom" from our dependence on foreign sources of oil, just not in the way that many people hoped.

Anonymous said...


Greece may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. The rest of the PIIGs may fall like dominoes. The sovereign defaults look bigger than the US mortgage mess. We shall see.


Coal Guy