Friday, December 12, 2008

Americans Ain't Driving

"Drivers clocked 9 billion fewer miles on the nation's roads in October even while gas prices were dropping, suggesting a downturn in driving that began a year ago is attributable to more than just energy costs."

I have been beating this drum for 2 years. Irrespective of the price... You can't burn fuel that is not there! Oil availability to the U.S. declined over 5% last year. No MATTER WHAT the price is, that means we were going to use less during that period. The question now is:

Will the decline in availabilty continue? We don't have to debate it. 2008 is over. Another couple of quarters of data that continue the trend would be game, set, match.

That does not mean that Oil prices would spike again in early 2009, but it wouldn't hurt Oil prices, either. We gotta wait for more data.

Good Luck!

Mentatt (at) yahoo (com)

1 comment:

bureaucrat said...

A summary ...

Gasoline pump prices (and crude oil itself) have been cut in half (that's 50%, people)

But driving miles have gone down only 5-10% at best, and I guess demand is dropping.

There are LOTS of cars and trucks still moving here in Chicago.

I would say that regardless of the price and the economy, people one way or another are still driving, and will continue to drive till hell freezes over.

The runup in oil and other commodities last May can now only be explained by a huge, unwarranted speculation by investors that hoped the "imagined scarcity" of oil would lead to higher and higher prices.

Sad fact is, that scarcity is still real, as Jeffers has lead to, and the prices are covering that up.