I am not trying to give these blogs a plug here, most of you know who they are. Each and every one of them has been lambasting Washington and Wall Street about the dangers of housing and the coming of $100 plus oil or 4 or 5 years. This Blog has operated since 2005, prior to that we distributed White Papers on the subject to our clients on these issues (not that they paid any attention either).
With the exception of Goldman Sachs and Raymond James (and yours truly) NO WALL STREET FIRMS spoke up about the coming energy "conundrum" until nearly 2008 - and NO ONE openly discussed the coming housing disaster in 2003, 2004 and 2005. ZERO. ZIP. NADA.
Now, here comes the former Chairman of the Hair Club For Men, Alan Greenspan telling us that housing "is nowhere near the bottom". Really? And you came up with that assessment all by yourself? But with all of the Fed's myriad resources, you did not see this coming 2 years ago? Really?
Donkey Dust!!
Bernake, Greenspan, Paulson, Jimmy Cayne (Bear Stearns), Sandy Weill (Citigroup), Stan O'Neal (Merrill Lynch), et al... with all the fu%$$! money and minions in the world, and none of them could figure this out?
Yet a bunch of unfunded, for the most part self-educated (as my very good friend Rabbi Mo Silver says: "is there any other kind?". And where would you go to get formal training, i.e. Housing Crisis 101, Peak Oil Crisis 201?), part-time bloggers have been publishing about this for YEARS, and no one in Washington or Wall Street gives us a WHIFF of consideration until - get this - the bloody FDIC mentioned "keeping an eye on the financial bloggers", ostensibly because WE were causing panic and mistrust in the U.S. banking system. Hey, lady! Get a GRIP! We didn't bring down IndyMac. The Fed, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac did. This might even be FUNNY if it weren't sooooooo sinister.
But at least the CEO of Freddie Mac received $20 MILLION in compensation to have his stock lose 80% of its value and miss every sign that the housing market was collapsing. Cripes! I'd have done it for $10 MM, and I look better in suit than this Jag Off.
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Look, California is already insolvent. Within 1000 to 1,200 (and it might be in less than 365 days) days the State of California will need to shut down 1/3 to 1/2 of its workforce and programs, and many, many cities and counties will find themselves filing for Bankruptcy under Chapter 9 of U.S. Federal Bankruptcy Code.
This implosion is going to be one for the history books. Sorry folks, but socialism really doesn't work as well as promised, especially during a significant energy crisis (just ask the former Soviet Union).
There is no free lunch. You can't get something for nothing. And you can't get blood from a stone. The energy crisis is going to make the rich much less so, and there are going to be a great deal many less of them. So much for the "tax the rich" B.S. coming from certain members of California's legislature.
California, like the U.S., should (and will be forced to in the final analysis) fire state employees in droves until it can meet its budget without resorting to further extortion from the tax payers, already amongst the most oppressed tax payers in the country.
This won't take long. It will CERTAINLY occur before Mexico becomes an Oil importer - and that seminal event, the end of Mexican Oil to the U.S. just isn't that far in the future.
Like it or not. You heard it here first. California is going to default on much of its debt, its cities are going to default on their pension obligations, and the state's social programs will be cut to the bone. All by the end of 2012.
Arnie picked a bad time to run the train set.
Yours for a better world!
Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com
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2 comments:
G:
You are on fire. But I keep telling you that you need to keep quiet or Hank, Ben and Sheila are going to come for you for spreading negative information.
When I was listening to Greenie yesterday, I was amazed at how clear, correct and honest he was in his commentary. He stated that this was a 100 year financial storm. That statement was IMHO, heralding the conclusion of the unresolved experiment known as "Global Financial Capitalism."
Which has been so richly underwritten by fossil fuels.
FWIW, Goldie is the only firm on Wall Street that has a chance of seeing the other side of this. But they will be much smaller. What they need to do now is flatten their balance sheet and pay back all the money they owe. If not, they will follow the rest into history.
As total available energy declines, and economic activity with it, the polity needs to make some very hard choices. As you have mentioned previously, here in NY we have a very high level of services. Without the debasement kings of Wall Street and their minions, we are in for a very rough time. And as for taxing the rich, pffft. To borrow from JHK, so much illusory wealth is vaporizing that we will relearn that printed money is not "wealth".
Things are getting interestinger and interestinger.
Keep it up.
LD
Wouldn't you say that Grover Norquist's baby (the Federal and state governments)is under water in the bathtub and really struggle? That's a reptilian brain trying to survive.
Isn't that cause for rejoicing? Maybe Greenspan et al have just been doing the Lord's work and have been successfully on task all these years. Maybe all this is just the fruits of their efforts. A good thing even tho collateral damage can be a bitch. Bring the house down.
The right wing conservatarians have wanted to kill it off for a long time. It looks like they may succeed with a little help from good friend PO.
Should be quite an interesting long emergency.
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