Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Armageddon and the End of Income Redistribution

The financial stocks are melting down - trading like they are going out of business. Normally, that is when I would be buying. I would not touch this with a 10 foot pool, because I think many of them ARE going out of business, and that the shareholders in the surviving financial companies will be wiped out.

Further, if I am correct that millions of working folks have decided to go on a mortgage payment strike, don't worry about "Peak Oil". It will literally be TEOTWAWNI, though with a couple of positive hiccups here and there.

The effects on politics could hardly be more profound. As a hardcore libertarian, I look forward to the end of control of the political system by liberals and conservatives. This is the end of income redistribution (there won't be enough to worry about), the end of the pro choice/pro life debate (life will be dramtically more local, including local customs), the end of the infotainment culture (renting a movie will set you back $25 but your income won't rise a plug nikel), the end of high priced divorce lawyers (nothing to split, and people will NEED their families), not to mention the end your ability to spend ON CREDIT.

We will know soon enough: Peak Oil might have been beaten to the punch by Peak Credit.

Good Luck!

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com


Andrew said...

That's been my view of things for several months now - I've switched from trying to prepare my family for Peak Oil to a good old deflationary depression. Not that its easy. My father, who grew up in the 1930s, thinks that "they" won't ever let another depression happen & my worries are something from the lunatic fringe.

Btw, the credit meltdown is going to nullify any government efforts to avoid the consequences of Peak Oil. By the time TPTB finally realise that investment in widespread public transport and alternate sources of energy is urgently needed the money just won't be there to spend.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

I am somewhat shocked at the "rate of change" as measured by Fannie Mai and Freddie Mac, the other socialist "Big 2", besides medicare and social security.

I hope my theory is wrong, but the data keeps piling up. Unfortunately, we won't know until it is well in the past. But the big money, the smart money seems to think FNM (Fannie Mae) FRE (Freddie Mac) are doomed.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

There are some positives that COULD come out of this.

A good smash up in the credit markets with rampant bank failures and defaults might just trigger INTELLIGENT action at the State and Federal level, though I dare not be hopeful.

This is another "self rescue" mission, as anyone with any experience in adventure travel would understand. There is no chopper coming to rescue the common man - you are on your own.

Of course that has always been the way, we just did not see it in the recent era until we reached a certain age.

This is truly fascinating, a truly interesting time to be alive.

Anonymous said...

I think you're all gonna be sadly disappointed when the "end of the world" doesn't happen. Life will not end, but everything is just gonna get a lot more expensive. What do humans really need? Food (the Jewel stores in Chicago are still selling milk at $2.48 a gallon), clothing (even the latest Abercrombie jeans will last a few years) and shelter (p.s. your parents and friends are DYING to have you crawl to them to use their roof -- I know mine are). So, tough times seem baked in the cake, but this orgy of "off the grid" doomer nonsense just ain't gonna happen. Let's stick to the facts and expert opinion, eh?

Andrew said...

Oh, phew, that's all ok then.

Guess I'll go out and buy that 6 bedroom mcmansion I've been looking at, plus a couple of SUVs :)

Dan said...

“Life will not end, but” a lot of lives will. “A lot more expensive” means famine and freezing.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

I was using a bit of hyperbole with my "TEOTWAWNI".

No, the world won't end... nor will the financial system... Can't a guy use a little drama?

FNM and FRE WILL end. So will F, GM, Social Security and Medicare. And not right away, either. And maybe not entirely, but in REAL terms you won't know the difference. Life will go on, and we will adjust.

Folks that interpret the environment correctly and act accordingly will prosper, relatively, and those that do not will not.

Have a sense of humor, please!

Anonymous said...

Sense of humor I couldn't live without. :) But every nut who is praying to "hold the hand of God" in the next 30 days is latching on to doomsday/peak oil/off-the-grid shit like manna. It's one thing to adjust your investments (and I am) to capitalize on the stupid planning decisions of the people (including govt.) around us. But we ain't gonna all evaporate ... unless they stop shipping my Gatorade powder!! Now THAT would be the end of the world!!

fallout11 said...

Again, I believe Dmitry Orlov said it well:
"It is all subjective. Because collapse will not be televised, you will not know it has happened. You will only know it has happened to YOU."
For those who've lost their job, their home, or live in a poor third world country, they're already there, collapse has already occurred, at least as they see it.

Greg, it's TEOTWAWKI by the way (K for know, rather than N for ?)

Andrew, very well said. Personally, the fewer people who "get it", the better for those of us who do. Canneries are already backlogged for six months, prices rise and availability falls on necessities in accordance with demand. Much as in the marketplace, let the sheeple sleep on, that's their loss if they elect to continue to invest in a manner inconsistent with the future.