Two things stand out in my mind:
Folks on the left berate me that my focus is too pecuniary and why can't I just see that if we elect a Liberal Democrat that everything will be put right because we will subsidize alternative fuels, punish those scum bag speculators, and have rock concerts for peak oil, etc...
Folks on the right berate me that all we need to do is drill off-shore and in ANWR and all will be well. We can drill our way to prosperity and energy independence!
These folks are the "True Believers". Forget the laws of Physics, the Laws of Thermodynamics, or simple arithmetic for that matter. These folks are angry, they are RIGHT, and that is that.
Let me give an absurd but perfect example:
Never mind that the political folks on the left make both arguments interchangeably, and that NO ONE within their constituency quietly corrects them. "IT IS TRUE. WE ARE RIGHT AND YOU ARE WRONG!!!!"
Lest you think I am picking on the jerks on the Left, let me point out the manipulations and obfuscations and out right fucking lies from the opposing scumbags on the Right:
We cannot drill our way to independence. We can ONLY drill our way to ZERO reserves. The quicker we drill for that domestic oil the quicker it will be gone and the more disastrous the rate of change will be in the future.
But it WILL make a few guys VERY RICH. And that is who is pulling these strings for the Jerks on the Right.
The U.S. is being destroyed by these opposing schmuks. They represent something less than 15% of the VOTERS, and much less of the general population, but they will bring us to ruin, if we don't THINK.
Whether you are on the Left or Right, you can THINK. You do not need to believe everything that your corner is telling you. All politics is local. You can make a difference at the local level. Will your "difference" help or harm?
THINK.
Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com
5 comments:
Or, we could drill while building Pu/Th nuclear power plants, cracking shale and making fusion a viable power source. We could drill to tide us over for the next ten years as trash reclamation, sawgrass ethanol and solar/wind get their bugs worked out and put on line. Or we can watch as the Chinese drill for oil off Florida and laugh at us.
Admittedly, there is no guarantee that we will build the power plants, work on R&D, or any of that. Still, it is a better idea than doing nothing, or shooting ourselves in the foot. Punitive taxes on the oil industry or nationalizing it would be doing just that, self-inflicted damage.
While now may not be the time to use offshore oil and the SPR but soon it will be; once there is a power base ready to support the needed action we need to be all in. It’s rather common to find people who perished from dehydration in a survival situation with water in their canteens. They conserved it for too long and while it might not have made a difference it might have. Either way we don’t want to be them.
Tweel, The trick is to punitively tax with loopholes for the desired activities. Buying treasury stock probably wouldn’t get preferential treatment but investing in capital equipment to manufacture wind turbines, solar cells, etc would. The tax code is currently a means of social control and probably always has been.
Thank you for your comments.
Of course we will need to produce our domestic oil. But there are several balancing acts going on here.
The SPR should, in my opinion, be retained for National Security, not dispersed for economic comfort.
The economy and hence the tax base is going to dictate what comes, for the most part, irrespective of the HOTAIR coming from the Left and the Right.
I was not suggesting that I had the answers...This is an EXTREMELY complex problem, and each of these groups continues to proffer, and their simple minded adherents continue to believe, ridiculously simple solutions solutions.
Unfortunately, that is not to be.
Ah, the center cannot hold, vocal extremism prevails.
ANWR makes a great National Strategic Oil Reserve, en-situ. The other 'solutions' put forth by most are, sadly, not really solutions at all, and often promoted without an understanding of thermodynamic, physical, or economic sensibility.
Shale oil (much like oil sands) has never been economical, and never will be, despite endless promises over the last 40 years to the contrary. "It'll be economical at $40/barrel!" was the cry 20 years ago. Sorry. Energy density < baked potatoes. The Canadians still can't turn a profit even at $140 barrel. Never will, either. Energy returned on energy invested is roughly parity.
Fusion is the power source of the future, and always will be. Nearly 6 decades of development have led to.....nothing. Wishful thinking and empty promises.
Metalic fuel breeder reactors have promise, yes, but world Uranium stocks are only predicated to last 50 years at current usage rates (see the 2005 US DOD or Army Corp of Engineers report on same). No Uranium, no Plutonium or Thorium, no reactors. I did work on thorium cycle fast breeders back in the 1980's, and yet we're still talking about this in a theoretical sense today. Don't expect miracles in the short term.
Point is, Greg's points remain valid, there are no simple, easy, quick, painless, 'just do it' solutions, nor will pollyannaism or Jiminy Cricket syndrome produce any in the near term. That is the reality.
Something was truncated by my use of a less than sign.
.....in reference to shale oil, it has a natural energy density less than that of baked potatoes. Not viable given the inherent energy costs of mining and processing.
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