Saturday, June 28, 2008

Market's Zig and Zag, They Don't Zig and Zig

Crude Oil at $142.

The low for 2007 was just under $50.

I can't get excited about going long Oil here (irrespective of how dumb our elected reps might be in enacting "emergency" measures to "reign in" speculation.  Duh!  I thought we the U.S. practiced free market capitalism).  Not that Oil could not go up from here, it is just that when a correction begins, it could be a real winner and at that time I would want to be able to be a buyer.

If you were hoping for an oil-led end of the world, my bet is you might have to wait a little longer.  Not to worry, though.  The U.S. housing and mortgage markets will lend a hand to you cheering doomers.  Just be patient.

Not that Oil imports will increase - they won't.  And not that the economy will improve - it won't.  Oil does not need to be $140 to demolish the U.S. economy... anything over $100 will do that job well enough.  But markets have a way of screwing the MOST people possible.  Now that COULD be the Oil shorts, or it COULD be the Oil longs... but somebody is going to get a really good ass kicking - SOON.

A first rate banking disaster could make for an interesting Oil market.  For instance... Does Oil go down more than the U.S. $ purchasing power does?  This is going to be a very interesting couple of months for those of you making a living trading in the markets.

Good Luck! (You're gonna need it)

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com

1 comment:

Donal Lang said...

For me the big question is; will demand-destruction in the US (using 25% of total oil production, and more than 50% of exportable oil) be faster than the increase in oil imports by China (and to a lesser extent India). If the US imports fall faster than the take-up by others, then the price could fall substantially.

But this is complicated by the Land Export Model - tradeable oil is declining far faster than overall production. And in real terms oil is still so very cheap for what it does - it could be 5 times the price and we'd still be using it.

So I'd guess that any downturn in price will be shortlived. What's your guess?