Sunday, May 11, 2008

One or the Other

Either Oil comes down HARD, or the stock market comes down HARD. (They won't both go up, though both COULD go down.)

If oil heads higher from here, it is my opinion that the U.S. and much of the world's equity markets get CREAMED (that's a technical term).  Smashed. Whacked. Smoooshed.  If oil heads down, say below $100, my bet it stocks would likely rally.

If you are in equities, you have been warned.

 



 



2 comments:

Stephen said...

Any idea how long it might take for this to happen? Your educated guess will be much better than mine...seeing that I am a scientist and not an economist.

Many thanks for your blog...it is informing and entertaining.

Stephen

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Stephan:

I am almost offended! An economist? I am no such thing!!

Just kidding. I have little formal training in economics, just the ussual undergrad requirements... Mostly, I would best be described as "self educated White Trash" (that was the line a former partner used to describe me and he was trying to be insulting... I positively LOVED it and use it now as my own...)

I wish I had a better handle on timing market conditions. I would be a great deal richer... that said, I am assuming that you mean "when" as in when will the equity market tank...

Watch oil. Oil will lead the way. If you see oil at $150+, it is my opinion that a severe market correction will follow, or a severe round of hyper inflation has already occured. Keep reading here and I will be happy to vent about it all.