Thursday, May 15, 2008


This month National Geographic Magazine has an issue dedicated to the China story.

"Car Crazy" (p. 142) lists some interesting statistics:

Number of cars per capita in China is the equivalent of America circa 1915.

In China, that is 9 per 1000 residents.  Compare that with the U.S. - 450 per 1000 residents.

Year in which China is expected to have more cars than the U.S. - 2025.

Here's a fun one.: Percentage of Chinese car owners that DID NOT KNOW HOW TO DRIVE 3 YEARS AGO - 37%!!

Of course, the Chinese are not very good drivers...  the Chinese death rate per 100,000 vehicles is 4.5 times the U.S.

AND MY PERSONAL FAVORITE:  Percentage of Chinese that paid CASH for their car - 96%!!!
Roughly the opposite of the U.S. where less than 10% pay cash.  How many cars will CHINA DEMAND when they get hooked on American style debt in a addition to an oil car/oil addiction?

For every mile a new Chinese car owner drives, by mathematical necessity 1 fewer miles must be driven by some a driver in the industrial West (read, U.S.).  Oil production has been flat for over  years.  No additional Oil, no additional miles traveled.

So what are we going to do about it?  Invade China?

Yours for a better world,

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I lived in China for a year (2006/2007) and the car situation there is insane. They don't have enough space for all the bicycles and yet they are trading in the bikes for cars. The whole country is under construction - building highways between cities and elevated highways in towns. China may not complete their highway infrastructure in time for the peak oil bust, but they will give it their best shot.