Saturday, May 31, 2008

Doooo SOMETHING… ANYTHING!! Even if it is wrong

The U.S. Commodities and Futures Trading Commission ("CFTC") just announced that an investigation into Oil futures price rigging has been ongoing for the past 6 months.

This, in spite of CFTC chief economist testifying before Congress:

"Jeffrey Harris, chief economist at the CFTC, which regulates commodity markets, countered Masters' attack by telling lawmakers that "fundamental economic forces and the laws of supply and demand" are pushing prices higher, not fund positions.  Associated Press

So why the investigation? Simple.  It is an election year, and the politicians want to appear like they are DOING SOMETHING.  So, rather than tell American's the truth - that we are in the beginning stages of the greatest challenge to Western Civilization in history - they blame "Speculators".  

Folks, here is the deal.  Oil exporting countries SUBSIDIZE gasoline costs for their citizens.  Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela citizens, for example, all pay less than 50 cents for a gallon of gasoline.  Even some IMPORTING nations, like China and India, subsidize the costs of gasoline for their citizens.  In other words, rising prices are felt much greater, and their effects will be much greater, in importing countries with low gasoline sales taxes - i.e. the U.S.A.  All of the speculative manipulation in the WORLD would not add up to spit when compared to these subsidies.

One of the FEW things we could do to bring down the price of Oil, and it would only be a temporary fix unless we took many, huge steps to retool the American transportation infrastructure and living arrangements (mass transit and a moratorium on all suburban development in favor of high density development) would be to enact the MOTHER OF ALL SALES TAXES ON GASOLINE (give me sec... I am an anti-big government, anti-tax, right to bear arms, separation of church and state, decriminalize just about everything WHACKO libertarian) to "encourage" (force) Americans into less profligate energy lifestyles.

A $7 per gallon gasoline tax enacted over the next 2 years would do far more than all the investigations and public executions of speculators could ever do. We could make it revenue neutral by ABOLISHING THE SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE TAX.

There is NAFC that any of that is going to happen.  What IS going to happen is this:

Each year, the number of miles you drive is going to decline by, my best guess, better than 5% per year, (no matter how much hydrogen-ethanol-windmill-nukes those arrogant, yuppie c--- sucker environmentalist, trust fund-limousine liberal, slapped ass jerks come up with) until sometime around 2025 - 2030 you will have more need of a space helmet than a driver's license.


Now me, I'm in it for the money.  What about you?  

The demand from 6.4 billion people trying to live like the other, rich 300 million on our planet's FINITE resources, oil, steel, silver, corn, etc...  is going to stick hyper inflation "where the sun don't shine".  You can benefit from this certainty, or you can lose everything you have worked for to the inflation thief.

If you are in the "I want to lose" everything camp, just keep digging your hole.  For those of you smart enough to notice you are in a hole, stop digging right now.  If you think you are in a hole and you CAN'T climb out of it - just walk away.  You would be amazed.  This is going to come at us so fast now as to be surreal.  The U.S. economy is going to "sh-t the bed" over the next several years because it simply cannot survive $150 - $200 per barrel oil and declining availability.  Worse, the investments that widows and orphans thought were safe are going to prove far more toxic than a sub-prime mortgage pool.  This is no time to be a widow or an orphan.

And do not listen to those guys on Wall Street!  They are as close to being superfluous as your appendix.  They can't do a lick of good for you, but they sure as hell can kill you!  Now that is a risk/reward ratio even a politician would recognize to be unfavorable.  Not that he wouldn't vote for it - he would, if he thought it would help him maintain his position - but at least he'd know it.

Anyway, inflation is baked in the cake.  The western nations are increasing their money supply at the time the physical world (read: Oil) ran into serious limits.  More dollars chasing stagnant or declining supplies leads to inflation fast, many more dollars leads to HYPER inflation.

"We have met the enemy... and he is us".

Yours for a better world,

Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com


Anonymous said...

Don't pull any punches Greg. What do you really think of this situation? :-)

Look I totally agree. This can't be fixed by people. Well actually it can be fixed by people. They can stop using finite resources by dying, decrease the use of finite resources through self imposed austerity. Unfortunately Jevon's paradox postulates that if some people stop using scarce resources, the price for them will go down thus making it more affordable for other people to start using them in higher quantity. Energy saving technologies lead, strangely enough, to higher uses of energy because it makes it cheaper per unit/person using this new technology. Thus more people buy this technology that costs so much less per unit to run.

Nope there is no way to get out of this conundrum. All you can do is to prepare your family for a different future of much lower energy availability. Your ability to stay ahead of the energy curve is going to be crucial to maintaining life function. It is as simple as that. All you have to be is in the top 5% of the global population and you will probably be left standing. Nothing is guaranteed but hey, its better then the virtual certainty of the demise of the other 95%.

Cheerfully yours,
Chuck H.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Hi Chuck:

It is an absolute sin, the way our elected officials pander to the electorate. On the way out, I just can't see giving these jerks a free pass.