“With inventory levels in an ultra-lean state, businesses should start adding inventories in the second half of the year as the economy begins to show signs of life,” - Ellen Zentner, senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.
I would be very willing to take the other side of that trade. I bet that inventories, while ULTRA LEAN, will not be rebuilt anytime soon.
No rebuilding of inventories = high probability of a double dip recession.
I do not guarantee that I am correct, but that is how I a playing this (and I will absolutely, positively change my tune if the data changes).
For my money, the opportunity is in the Grain market, 2010 and later. For more than that, you are on your own