This is the very definition of overshoot and collapse.
And it is a very, very smart thing to do. I will be the first to commend this administration if they actually follow through and get this done.
This will NOT be limited to these 50 cities. Within 10 years this will, by mathematical necessity, happen (one way or another) to nearly every major American Metro Center. The question really is, HOW do we want to shrink the sheer size of these metro areas? I am a Libertarian, not an Anarchist. This is GOVERNMENT'S perusal. I hold out little hope of efficiency, competence, or fairness... but the free market is NOT likely to solve this issue in a satisfactory way.
I can't help but think of the words of Dmitri Orlov "Collapse will occur one person, on neighborhood at a time" if memory serves...
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11 comments:
Greg,
I read that piece this morning, sad, but needed.
On a lighter note, here in Wake Forest,NC we are pushing for the transition town, the canidate for Mayor has a website, www.davidformayor.com , outlining this plan. We need to get things rolling in this direction, hopefully the Fed stays out of the way.
I agree with the one person.. from Dmitri Orlov. Unfortunately, this will happen quietly for the most part and will catch most people off guard.
Check out the site,I might actually vote this year.
Peace
As we expanded into suburbia at the turn of the last century the abandoned urban slums were eventually demolished to make way for offices and industrial parks; now we appear to have come full circle.
Insanity. Something close to the broken window fallacy or war is good for the economy thinking.
People would be surprised at what the free market can do if they would let it.
I would think in the future with cheaper labor costs and higher Chinese demand an industrius American could run business carefully taking these buildings apart. The valuable products (lumber,shingles, copper pipes,etc)could then be shipped to china. My uncle did this about 30 years ago and my made money. He did have the advantage of cheap child labor. we got paid in cokes and moon pies.
You have a blog cleed libertarian animal but you support the government making the decisions about what to do with surplus houses? Ithink i know what George Carlin would have said about that!
There is a role for government. Defense, Law and Order, Water, etc...
These cities are going to shrink, and then the REST of the cities are going to shrink.
I did not say that a bulldozer was ALWAYS the answer. Perhaps the answer is for the government to allow private individuals to BID on the deconstruction... I have not thought about it a great deal.
Just remember: NO ONE owns land in the U.S., the government owns it. We own TITLE to the land.
Ergo, we have to work with the system we've got.
If It is cheaper to demolish the neighborhoods than to service them with Police, Fire, etc...
And if the land can be returned to useful farm or wildlife areas...
AND if we don't have the energy sources to service them...
You see, the free market HAS spoken - and it has abandoned these areas to the government...
IF you have any better ideas, I am all ears.
BTW, Libertarians are not anarchists.
I like Orlov, and agree with several comments here. I don't think it is easy for government entities to realise that centralised power has a limited role in managing decline; they can't even handle the language, calling it 'negative growth'!! What lind of bullshit is that??
I agree with Anon that the solutions largely start with individuals and small communities. I'm also involved with Transition Towns movement in England, and found many people have constructive solutions for a controlled energy descent. The important thing to realise is that society and community can survive (albeit with casualties) if people co-operate with each other.
Perhaps this doesn't sit so well in the US where individualism is so strong, but I don't think 'heading for the hills' (or out to sea) is much of a solution, certainly not for our kids! We need to do better than that.
I'll add a couple more comments:
Cities are too big; they're based on cheap road transport of everything, especially food, over great distances. For example London has, say, 15 million people, each eats say 3 kilos (about 7lbs) of food & liquids a day, so thats 45,000 tons. At say 20 tons per truck, thats 2,250 trucks. Every day! And that's just food in, there's also furniture, building materials, waste out, ....
Then look what happens when fuel prices double, or triple. Its not sustainable, even for the next few years.
The other thing i was going to say; When I was in my mid 20's I had a young family and successful business, but was scared by the real possibility of nuclear war in Europe. I bought a 65' ketch and refitted it for long distance sailing; 1,000 gallon fuel tanks, water tanks, big generator, etc. It had everything. I kept that boat 9 years (and had a lot of fun in it) but came to realise that running away from a war might ensure survival, but would still leave you with almost nothing of importance.
Better to try fix what's there.
All cities are going to shrink, and many homes and commercial building are going to be abandoned.
How we dismantle them I am agnostic on. That they WILL BE dismantled is beyond a doubt. Bulldozer, striped by legitimate or illegitimate operators, or left to nature, they will be dismantled.
Paying for police, fire, and other services for abandoned areas is infinitely more expensive than demolishing them. These houses don't sell for $5,00 at auction. Should we pay $1 MILLION for a couple of police and a couple of fire fighters to protect them - PER YEAR??
The question isn't whether they'll collapse - you're right, they will.
It is whether you sit at your window and watch your neighbours house be demolished or vandalised, with all the consequences for YOUR property, life and neighbourhood, or if you and your neighbours get organised and MANAGE the decline.
The Transition movement is about local people managing the process and deciding what the best end result will be. Much better than yearning for a consumer lifestyle that will never be again, or waiting for The Government to fix things.
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