Thursday, July 23, 2009

Irrational vs Slolvent

"The Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

As the U.S. stock market roared up, so did Oil, while the Treasury Market fell out of bed.

Welcome to the "Long Whip Saw" (my version of JHK's Long Emergency). The equity market will get stopped in its tracks by either higher rates (think mortgage and housing) or higher Oil (think oppresed consumer and industrial sector).

No market exists in a vacuum, and this just gets tougher and tougher every day.

Libertariananimal at Gmail (d0t) com

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I agree. This is just a short term phenomenon that will last until the falling dollar and associated rise in import prices kills it. Six to nine more months, I'd guess. We are in the period when the money supply is increasing, but before inflation takes hold. Inflation will raise interest rates. That will depress equities. Our export industries should be somewhat less affected by the downturn.

Regards,

Coal Guy