It is hard not to look at the rally with envy. That's OK. I am going to continue to look at the equity market with suspicion. On any given day I am prone to trade - short or long - but to put money to work for the medium term (I don't EVER consider the long term... too many things change), I need more time. I don't have to get the exact bottom. It is OK with me if I am on the right side of the market's "U" or "W" because I don't believe for a moment that we are going to have a "V" recovery in the market OR the economy.
I'm optimistic, but I'd sure like to see the Best Buy results for next quarter before I do much more than watch this market or go fishing. Three months to go.
Now me, well I am not as optimistic... but I AM looking for an entry point on certain energy and commodity companies. I was tempted a couple weeks ago, but not after a 20% rally.
That does not mean that the market won't trade up to its 200 day moving average - it could. It is just that I have my doubts. The banks are not out of the woods, housing has not shaken itself out just yet, unemployment in the U.S. continues to rise, and Asian exports are crashing. Some might argue that this is a bad as it gets, and that stock prices already reflect all of the above. Maybe. Maybe not.
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The collapse in E & P budgets for the energy sector is going to lead to serious supply shortages in oil, and eventually natural gas ("NG"). I have long viewed NG as a career killer, but the price decline is going to leave a fantastic number of rigs rusting up in debris fields the continent over. At some point the snap back in NG price is going to be a career maker - like you read about.
Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com
2 comments:
I myself am obsessed with the long term. I figure it is the best way to refine my ability to "predict the future." :)
The chart for the S&P 500 since October of 2007 is a drop from 1550 to today's 819. There are more than a few wobblies along that line, and the rally of the last 3 weeks isn't entirely significant as I see it. Friday's close wasn't very far off a hand-drawn straight line thru the S&P 500 values for the last 2 years. I'm finding it hard seeing what is so special about this "sucker's rally"
thanks for the information....
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Sharon
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