Dear Sir:
You cannot imagine how much I want to be positive. I own a brokerage firm. I manage a hedge fund. We have ceased taking new money because of my "negative view", and business is down BIG because of my negative view... Believe me, I want to be positive (Or, I want to be "short", but I am terrified that if I go short the NEXT DAY the Feds will monetize all of the outstanding U.S. debt, and I will get wiped out...).
This guy said it best:
“When you’re buying equities, you’re buying a stream of earnings and current
earnings are in freefall,” said Douglas Cliggott, the Greenwich,
Connecticut-based manager of the $81 million Dover Long/Short Sector Fund, which
beat 97 percent of its peers last year. “We haven’t hit bottom yet.”
Not to mention... Geitner and Bernake are not asking for these unbelievable powers from Congress becasue they don't think they will be taking over the big banks.
Did I mention that the Fed is not engaged in quantitative/qualitative easing because the sun is shining over our shoulders, the grass is green, the flower's grow and life if so gay, hurray, hurray!? (from the "Funny Farm".)
I think earnings and confession season along with guidance, which is only weeks away, is going to scare the living s**t out of investors. I think the market will bottom this year, maybe next September or October, and it will be pretty bad - so bad you won't want to touch it with a ten foot pole.
This just hit the tape:
"Krugman says big banks to be siezed."
Energy will be the place to be, and that sector was looking mighty attractive last week before the rally.
Patience. Opportunity is coming, and its got nothing to do with optimism. And forget what TPTB have to say. Watch what they do, and what further powers they ask for.
Mentatt (at) yahoo
5 comments:
Thank you for your no BS commentary. I actually disagree with a lot of the ultra libertarian views but I appreciate you calling it like you see it.
Screw "Happy Talk" unless it is real.
The propaganda streams keep enough of that noise in the air.
And thanks, also,because you were one of the voices that convinced me to move my very modest little nest egg to cash in Jan 08. Thanks.
In the same vein, I was positive from 1989 to 2007. My retirement funds were in the S&P 500. I work for the Federal government. I was rah-rah on America for 18 years. The S&P did well. But I never lost my eternal pessimism for labeling things that "just aren't right." I also have benefited from listening to those who saw a (negative) turn in the road before anyone else. There is a time for optimism, and a time to call reality what it is.
As for energy, for your own account, do you favor stocks or actual commodities? Thnx
Stocks or Commodities? I own both in the energy sector, and in the precious metals sector, and in the Ag sector.
I cannot be more specific, as this is a free speech effort, and not a fishing expedition for new customers. If it were, I would come under the "advertising rules", not to mention the lack of independence and impartiality.
That is the primary reason you also do not see any advertising on the site for others - that and I don't need the money, though that can change! (though I hope not).
I would have thought investors would be happier being presented with solid data based analysis, even when it implies things are bad, rather than pure spin for the sake of selling you something. Your straight shooting no bs approach (apart from some of the political stuff ;) keeps me coming back to the site. The bank phoned me yesterday asking me to invest some of my cash in a stock linked fund, and partly thanks to this site, I could say no with complete confidence I was making the right decision. If a negative outlook can turn into a positive reaction, it is ultimately positive.
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