"We are going to close Guantanamo, and we are going to make sure that the procedures we set up are ones that abide by our Constitution."President-elect Barak Obama
Wow! When I heard that, I said to myself: I wonder if anybody caught that, or was it a Freudian slip? A Democrat, frequently accused of being a Liberal, cited the Constitution, and what's more, threatened to "abide" by it?
I gotta tell you, that that kind of talk just makes me go a warm, wet, rubbery one (as in tears... you sick b---tard, you!).
I think I would faint if he started talking about appointing members of the Judiciary and "abiding by the Constitution" in the same sound bite.
And talk about straight talk. When asked if he would appoint some large campaign contributors to Ambassador Just listen to this:
“There probably will be some” political appointees serving abroad, Obama said at a news conference yesterday. “It would be disingenuous for me to suggest that there are not going to be some excellent public servants but who haven’t come through the ranks of the civil service."
Holy Cow! You go, Mr. President-elect. Tell it like it is!
I don't want to gush, I know his team, while competent, are very much of the operative flavor that will push the system's agenda - but it has been enjoyable so far.
Hey, you never know.
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Debt trading, unlike equity trading, is not terribly transparent. There just isn't that much money in trading equities - unless you are a hedge fund. Broker/dealers ("BD'S), registered trading firms, just can't make the kind of money they need to compensate for the risk trading equities. Bond trading, particularly MORTGAGE bond trading, was literally like shooting fish in a barrel. Until it blew up. Believe me, the Treasury market is very transparent - and ain't nobody making much of a living trading Treasuries at the big BD's. Making a penny or 2 a share on equities, or what used to be called a "tick", a 32nd, on a Treasury bond just doesn't pile up the money like 2, 3, 4, even 6 % of a CMO does. Or should I say, "DID"?
We sent our "best and brightest" (HA!) to our most exclusive, and expensive, business schools... so that they could come out and shoot fish in a barrel until the system imploded? Yep. That is EXACTLY what we did. All that brain power and NONE of it used for anything that turned out to be even remotely productive.
Hysterical!
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The problem for Detroit is that we don't need as many new cars as they are producing. Blame the economy, blame the decline in fuel supply, blame consumers that have decided to save rather than spend... No matter what or who you blame, no bailout is going to fix this issue. The MARKET is going to fix this issue. That problem, as Ron Paul pointed out, if politicians admitted that they do not have the power to fix "problems" like this, they would appear impotent and superfluous.
Appear?!!
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There will be several more Bear market rallies in the stock market this year. Wanna know when they will happen? Me, too. One or 2 could even be the 30 to 50% variety. My bet is that it will happen from a lower point than where we find ourselves.
If you are not a trader, you are probably better off in short term (less than 5 year) corporate paper and non leverage commodities. Unless, of course, I am wrong. In which case you wouldn't be. I have an uncanny grasp of the obvious, no?
Good Luck!
Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com
8 comments:
>All that brain power and NONE of it used for anything that turned out to be even remotely productive.<
Yes. 80 years of cheap energy has created all kinds of frivolous occupational niches that make no economic sense.
This is similar to what happens with ultra-low interest rate policy- ie numerous bad decisions are made throughout the economic system.
Maybe the lawyers will be next to face the firing squad- the US economy will not be able to afford 500 billion/year in litigation expenses in the future.
From your lips to G-d's ears!
The thing with lawyers is like the thing with Congress. We all hate Congress, but we like OUR Congressman.
I find the legal profession particularly objectionable, but my lawyer is also a client is also a family friend.
I also find Wall Street particularly objectionable, a place FILLED with just the worst humanity has to offer - except I work in the biz and I have made close friends in the biz that I don't feel that way about...
You are also correct in your assesment that "80 years of cheap energy has created all kinds of frivolous occupational niches"... only problem is... I LIKE my lifestyle (and I KNOW that it is goint to change DRAMATICALLY).
Thanks!
Good point.
The financial sector is massively expanded above the real economy- you know, the sector that produces REAL wealth. And most of what they are doing is moving piles of chips around the table for the benefit of rich folks with privileged situations and connections. Frivolous occupational niches?
Of course, the real mission of the financial sector is to facilitate the activities of the real economy- ie direct real capital to real enterprises. Not to just cunningly corner markets and steal money through political manipulations. Goldman Sachs?
It makes you wonder how long the ROW will tolerate a gang of wall street pirates who are using absolutely essential global commodities like food and oil as speculating vehicles. China is by many reports terminally pissed at the massive loss in value to their US linked accounts. And then we have the near collapse of many resource economies ie Dubai, Russia. And you have to wonder just what the resulting price in collapse and starvation will be in the 3rd world.
Ain't gonna last. Dollar hegemony is on borrowed time. We blew it big time.
And let's recognize that the this fiasco may very well result in a total US economic collapse. Any way that a likely 2-3 Trillion US$ deficit for a single year is going to even come close to being legitimately funded?
Mr. Jeffers, I know you are of the mind that racism is dead and buried in America (yeah, I know, gross oversimplification), but you may want to check out Kunstler's blog (kunstler.com) cause he seems to think the latest attacks on the Jews/Israel show that racism is alive and well. Imagine how bad things will get when the economy REALLY hobbles. :)
Are you sucking me in to the "third rail" of political correctness?
It is difficult to "politically correctly" point out the fallacies of the claims of racism by those that see themselves as victims.
Special interest ethnic groups will always be with us in America, and continue to claim victim status. Victimized by who? And how?
Of course there will always be bigotry in our multi cultural society - but let's face it. That bigotry comes from all directions and primarily from the disenfranchised... their "bigotry" is just barely contained jealousy (anti-semitism), or legacy (poor people hating other poor people for reasons that make no sense...
Is it racism when an individual refuses to eat a meal with people outside their faith because they do not observe their dietary restrictions or other tribal customs?
Is it racism if certain groups insist that their women wear garb that conceals and isolates them so that they have no opportunity to meet (and breed/marry) others?
Why is it that nearly ALL religions insist that that the offspring of the marriage be brought up in their faith and the spouse convert? (pretty obvious, really, but does it describe "racism"?
When does self imposed cultural isolationism become racism? Is it somehow racist to prefer your own kind?
Will groups that purposely differentiate themselves and use hardline tactics to maintain a distance from others be likely to find others terribly friendly? Will they then accuse them of "racism"?
Black/White racism is like energy from the "Big Bank", traces of its remnants are detectable in every direction, but the traces are diluted further each day.
Lastly, wanna know why special interest ethnic group leaders absolutely detest interracial marriages (like mine)? They fear becoming marginalized by the fact that ALL of our differences were contrived by our "leaders" - social, religious, racial, ethnic - and the live in terror of being marginalized, a fate they most certainly deserve.
Kuntsler is a Jew. If I put myself in Jewish shoes, It is difficult to fault Jews for seeing anything as a threat - considering the Jewish experience in 20th Century Europe it would seem entirely reasonable to jump out of one's skin at the slightest provocation.
And, no, I am not being sympathetic because I am Jewish. I was raised a Catholic and have evolved into a highly secular state. My family is highly "multicultural' - when people ask us our religion we respond that we are Bujewalics as we have bonafide Buddhists (the real deal, from Asia not convert), Jews, and Catholics.
My thinking on the Middle East is that it is a Gordian Knot, and it will never be solved by politics - not that I am much of a diplomat.
It is hard to agree with Kuntsler that American Jews have been harmed by anti-semitism in America. My bet is that every other ethnic group would trade social places with this particular ethnic group in a heartbeat.
What anti-Semitism exists in America it has at its roots jealousy at the success of American Jews, not the bigotry that Europe exhibited during the past several centuries, and perhaps the issues that seem to come with groups that insist on remaining outside the larger group - i.e., Protestants in Ireland and Muslims in the Caucuses...
The dumb fucks that waste their time hating in jealousy should instead learn from a group that has succeeded against all odds, but if they were that smart they would have nothing to be jealous of in the first place...
But what people refer to as Racism in America is the Black/White thing. I do not think it exists as it had in the 20th Century, Americans are inter-marrying more (I consider this the best barometer), we just elected a black man president, Our Sec. of State is a black woman...
The disparity you see in prison population and income has more to do with poverty than skin color, and poverty is a much more difficult issue to overcome - if it can be overcome at all. Rich white people dislike poor white people with the same intensity that they dislike poor black people. Do you know any white folks that wouldn't want their daughter to marry Michael Jordan or Will Smith?
My mom. :)
The Jews are always the fall guys because -- look at who all the people in your life that gives you bad news: your doctor, your lawyer, and your accountant -- heavily dotted with people of the Jewish persuasion. I just thought it funny that you're trying to tell us that racism as we have known it has died down a bit. I would say that the next economic powderkeg that goes off will result in plenty of racism, as we try to find someone to blame and be jealous of.
Another thing I look at that tells me that racism in America is receding is who we do business with.
I am a secular working class mutt from New York, my partner is an observant Muslim from India, our attorney and administrator is a completely mashugana (yiddish for crazy) Jew from Brookyln, and the guy who does our floor trades is Mexican living in LA. 25 years ago this would be a very unlikely cabal ( we have little in common outside of our desire to make a living) - not today.
This is not a "feel good" report. Racism takes a back seat when dealing with the people that help put food on your table. I never met ANYBODY that did not like their customers, or profit center employees, irrespective of their ethnic/religious/racial/whatever background.
People do not do business with someone because of their race or religion unless they have rocks in their head. Not that it does not happen, just that it does not work out so well for people engaging in that strategy.
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