Last year the action was fast and furious, spiking Oil prices, crashing equity markets, Fannie & Freddie nationalized, Banks seized by the FDIC.
It was a glorious time to be a Blogger!!
Ahh, but all good things come to an end...
Things only SEEM boring at the moment especially when compared to this past summer and fall. Don't let the quiet fool you.
The U.S. banking system is INSOLVENT. The biggest wave of foreclosures has yet to be realized, and the coming credit card massacre is going to be bloodier than the worst B Movie horror flick.
Yet the market for financial stocks rallied yesterday.
Folks, do not get sucked into the financial stocks short covering rally.
Good Luck!
Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com
7 comments:
As you are my financial advisor and friend, should I stay away from you (like Brutus) when the Ides roll around?
The Movement
Any fool that is looking to you (Jeffers) for day-to-day day-trading tips should write a check to me in Chicago, and I will gladly help them to make that money disappear. It's the same result. Perhaps we can buy me some new cars! I'm watching this blog for the long term energy stuff (and oil is so huge, it will take a long time to figure out what the REAL effects are of peak oil). If people are here to find out the day-to-day tips on trading, they are the foolish of the foolish.
Frankly I am enjoying the quiet. All around me people are getting to be quite morose and now I find myself being one of the most cheerful people in a conversation. This is me, mind you, an ultra bear. You can call me Yogi. However, what is the point of being gloomy when there is nothing that people can do at this time to save themselves. The time to prepare was a year or so back. The time to engage in evasive action is over, ditto on bracing for impact. Now its just enjoying the spectacle of the crash. No need to add doomer commentary to that. Might as well relax into the crash to reduce whiplash.
Thank you for all your efforts to make things intelligible for us. We really appreciate it. Great blog! Congratulations on the new baby.
Best regards,
Chuck H.
Greg- I have seen mentioned by a number of prominent bloggers- yourself included the possibility that there may be NO RECOVERY.
Most prominently, Mish Shedlock has alluded to this a number of times. I know that Mish is peak oil aware altho he hasn't mentioned this lately.
In your perspective, does NO RECOVERY reference to the point that, when the present financial outrages are finally worked through, that the world will be well into global oil depletion. Doubly so for the big importing countries ie USA, UK, EU, Japan.
Or is there more to this??
Dear Anon@1:14
I can't speak for Mish but that is pretty much the situation as I see it.
Of course, it depends how you define a recovery - or from what point of decline you are working up from. After all, it would not be hard to have a "recovery" after 4 quarters of 5% sequential GDP decline (I am exaggerating to make the point).
In REAL terms, I do not imagine that GDP will exceed 2007's for many, many years, unless we find some form of cheap domestic energy...
Bureaucrat:
Well, that remark got under my skin. I write this F&^&%!! blog for friends and family so that they might avoid some of the BS that Wall Street and our Government tries to convince them of. And yes, I hope that folks reading my blog get the message that I think the shareholders of most of the major banks will be wiped out, a position I have held for a couple of years now.
It seemed to me some people are looking for "how the market is going to do today" kinda information. I don't think you think that way and I was expressing that. When you have to apologize because there hasn't been more "daily newsy news," and things have been relatively quiet in the energy/financial world, Good Grief, you shouldn't be seen as a daily weathervane anyway! No serious writer on here should. And anyone who thinks you should deserves their losses.
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