Tuesday, January 6, 2009

The "Hope" Rally

Bear market rallies happen.  And they feel great, just about the best feeling you can have with your clothes on.

We are having one now.

You can TRADE it, just know what it is.  My bet is that this one is getting a bit long in the tooth.  I have been lightening up on my beloved energy equities.  There will not be any energy shortage while the economy is contracting this fast, and the "shoulder period" is only a couple months away.

My bet is is that when the market realizes how far away a recovery actually is that it will "sh-t the bed" (that is technical trader speak for a sharp sell off).  At that time, I will be looking for the stuff I want to own for next year.  Doesn't mean I am right, but that is what I am doing.

Good luck!

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com


3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey,

bureaucrat maybe on to something. Jewel had a 19% earning from 2007 to 2008.

Robert

bureaucrat said...

Food is always a great business. The profit margins suck and the unions are ever-present, but it's a business that has every reason to survive.

I found out this summer I can grow potatoes. Small potatoes, but potatoes nonetheless. :)

Anonymous said...

Looks like you were right