Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Florida is going to get its revenue at the point of a gun

In my last post I urged my readers to "be perfect" (no ones perfect, I meant don't cause yourself any trouble) because, among other reasons, the various local, state and federal governments need to raise revenue and need to justify sill budgets.

The state of Florida is going to increase the traffic fines.  You can be sure they are going to increase the aggressiveness of the enforcement.

Law enforcement is like any other government agency.  It has a budget, it wants the budget to be bigger, and it will spin and P.R. its agenda to get it.  The U.S. has the largest percentage of its population in prison in the history of the world.  As a deterrent for non capital/non violent crime, I really do not see the difference between a 10 year sentence and a 30 year sentence.  The budget sees the sentence as costing 3 times as much.  Our prisons are filled with people long past their "criminal menopause", and it is costing us a fortune.

I have 2 suggestions:
  1. Don't let it be you (right down to driving within the speed limit).
  2. Tell your representative you don't want to pay for keeping people in their 50's, 60's, and 70's in prison for non violent crime beyond some maximum - say 10 years.  The cost/benefit to society does not justify it (and we will not be able to afford it in any event).
Of course, few in Law Enforcement or the Judicial system are going agree with this.  These guys wouldn't know a cost/benefit analysis from a urine analysis.  

----------------------------------------------------------

Still listening to those jerks on CNBS telling you to look for a recovery in the second half of 2009?  

There is little demand for automobiles.  So much so that Toyota is shutting down production of new vehicles in Japan.  That ain't a sign in any future near term recovery.  And bodes ill for Detroit.

You see, the spin, spin, spin doctors are at work trying to convince the American people what is wrong in Detroit.  It it management's poor decision on model selection?  Or the UAW's compensation.  Let us use our brains and pen and paper.

Japan and Detroit sell a similar number of cars.  Japan's total net profits in 2007 - about $9 billion.  Detroit's net loss - about $ 38 billion.  What is the biggest overhead component for Detroit?  Worker compensation.  Hmmmmm... 5 corporate jet, while indefensible, are a drop in in barrel compared to UAW compensation.  Sorry, any junior analyst with his first pocket protector will get this in about 5 minutes.

Oh, and the argument that Detroit makes lousy cars?  I have owned only Ford's for over 20 years.  I own 3 Ford's right now. I have NEVER had to bring in one of my Ford's for ANY major service with less than 100,000 (that's what I have on my 2000 F-150 right now, and I use it to tow stuff with).  I love my Ford trucks and minivans.  I know it is anecdotal...


---------------------------------------------------------

China and Russia are on the verge of significant social unrest, perhaps revolution.  How do I come to that conclusion?  Food and employment.  Every society is just 3 meals from revolution, and the coming worldwide economic wipeout is going to hurt these nations more than most others, and their repressive regimes have wound the spring.  Nothing is a certain, just varying degrees of probability...

--------------------------------------------------------

Read this:


If you work in the financial service biz you are part of the "dead men walking" support group.  The entire industry is facing massive downsizing, many won't survive it, those that do will wish they went back to Veteranarian school.  Believe me, I am going to miss the action.

Good Luck!

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Happy New Year!


They're pulling them off the road right and left in Massachusetts too. The local police have a horrendous speed trap set up right down the street from my house. They wave cars off the road by the dozen. It's just a matter of time for me.....

Regards,

Coal Guy

Anonymous said...

Just read the Florida link.

So lets continue to screw our kids of their education.

Drop drivers ed for those that really need it.

etc.

Robert

bureaucrat said...

1) The stoplight cameras in Chicago ($100 ticket if the camera catches you entering an intersection on a red) was found to be legal by the Federal Appeals court. It's an annoying Chicago thing, but hopefully fewer people will blow the light and hit someone (with no insurance).

2) Half of prisoners are in for non-violent drug offenses. The drug war is a failure. We give up. Legalize it and tax it. There's no room for all of you people scared you're going to jail anyway.

3) Interesting that the drop in auto sales are hitting domestic and foreign almost equally. Prob with domestic car makers is their cars aren't "cool." My friends wanted and got BMWs, regardless of the overall cost or performance. They wanted to look like they were more wealthy than they actually are. I work with cars in the guv'ment. The domestics work just fine.

4) My brother-in-law is in the financial industry, and we're waiting to see what happens to him. You can't have a strong country like the U.S. if all we are doing is making loans to each other and borrowing ourselves into oblivion. We need the factories back, and hopefully the oil thing will make it so expensive to ship the stuff from China, that we will indeed make things again ... someday

Anonymous said...

Yup, Fords are great, especially the Focus that had something like 30 recalls in its early years. Sounds like quality to me.

A Quaker in a Strange Land said...

Bureaucrat:

I ONLY drive Fords... and I love them. I am sure the GM vehicles are just fine. We are looking for a full sized van (3 kids, dog, oversized Dad is making the mini van thing unworkable).

I hear you about the BMW thing... I put up a link about the millionaire next door last month... no self made millionaire family man with any sense would spend 50k - 100k on a f*&king status symbol... single guys, on the other hand...

The war on Drugs is a disgrace, and an abomination to our rights as Americans. Prohibition does NOT work. You simply cannot argue that having more Americans behind bars than any other society in history is a good idea.

Prisoners have children. Those children are not provided for when their parents go to jail, they turn to crime and the cycle continues. But it pleases the Roman mob to incarcerate them.

Your Bro-in-law might survive, and he might not. No question that the numbers are going to fall. The other thing is:

How would I feel about working in a factory production job after working on a trading floor making far more than I was worth? Not too good.

I prefer farming.

Anonymous said...

>I prefer farming.<

A couple of questions for you, Greg. This along the line of moving toward an agricultural economy....

We are set up with a nice country place with 15 acres. Bought it cheap with cash. Mostly forest with a few clear acres of mediocre soils. It's been great living here for 12 years. We are 60mi outside of DC and have the best of outdoors and still a vibrant economy. Nearby colleges & cultural stuff. Nearby national park. Our county is in great financial shape with large surplus accounts and low property taxes- we pay $1500/yr on 15 acres with a nice but modest house set up w generators & solar/wood heating & solar energy & great water. Govt employment is possible at 40 miles toward DC....for now. We also have lots of practical skills.

A few issues here...one is the proximity to DC ie terror, martial law etc. We have it on inside knowledge that in the event of a terror attack on DC the city population will be marched right out the interstate to this area re serious chaos. Another is the soil issue which would prevent this place from every being a massive agricultural producer. Good soils exist nearby and down our valley.

The question here is whether to ride it out here. Or move on to another area and attempt a go at some kind of essential small scale service or agricultural production? Any ideas or perspectives?

I bring this up on the open forum because I am sure others are also trying to chart a practical course over the coming societal chaos.

Unrepentantcowboy said...

I have a retired cop car--'98 Ford Crown Victoria with 220 thousand miles. It gets between 20 and 22 miles per gallon with a mixture of in-town and highway driving.

Safe, stable, roomy and comfortable.

My sister-in-law has a Toyota Avalon--paid around 30 grand for the thing.

I does no better on mileage, is no more comfortable.

I have a Chevy one ton diesel pickup with 400 thousand miles, another Chevy gasoline powered pickup with 300 thousand miles--all hard farm-related miles, often towing loads.

As Jeff says, it's legacy costs that are hurting American auto makers. That and disloyal Americans.

A Quaker in a Strange Land said...

Dear ANON @11:08

I am not sure I can offer anything of real use. I am not as concerned about masses of people coming to my farm - then again, i don't live outside of DC. I can see that a serious incident in DC would be a problem for folks outside the city, much like the rest of Florida if Miami got hit with a Cat 5 hurricane...

Our farm is really only capable of providing for us. I don't think I could make a living on my 15 acre farm. I just like the lifestyle and I love my garden, my mini orchard, and my animals (we eat them, milk them and eat their eggs - they are not pets).

Soils can be amended and worked provided the are not too sloped. Also, if you have lousy soil (our soil is nothing to write home about) I would suggest a raised bed garden, and trellises. After 12 years I am sure you have figured most of this stuff out.

I firmly believe that most us need to blossom where we are. If you already have a place in the country, and have outfitted it, I think you have done everything that can be done. What remains is your efforts at your place.

Please feel free to email me pictures of you spread and share any ideas. My email is posted after each article.

bureaucrat said...

I am an employee of the Federal government .....

The war on terror will end January 20th. It was a stupid, pointless, unfair war filled with paranoid policies like "60 character passwords which must have a little letter, a number and a special character, that you have to change every 90 days". The war is over. So is the martial law thing. We are all baby boomers (except for me). We are all very near to retirement (except for me). And we are too tired to round up your steak-demanding asses and put you all in chicken pens. You aren't worth the trouble. Stay on the farm. Watch Oprah.