Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Wikileaks and Saudi Oil

Boy, this one story is getting around the Web pretty quick.

And here.

Not that Oil is responding to it - Yet - but its hard to ignore.

11 comments:

westexas said...

Oil Drum discussion, where one of my posts on the topic can be found:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7464

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Westexas:

I saw you guys going over this over there. I figured i'd wait till tomorrow and let you folks get up a head of steam...

Dextred1 said...

Does this put a floor under oil? Is 100$ the new 60$ ? Could the floor be much higher than that already? We will find out soon when the summer driving season picks up. I am already at 3.25+ a gallon now in Michigan and we have a 14% unemployment rate...I think we may be in trouble.

This seems to support the 2005 peak that you and west texas are always talking about.

Dextred1 said...

The tea party caucus voted against the extension of provisions being renewed for the Patriot act today. Maybe these young guns have some balls. Now we just have to figure out how to dismantle the entitlements, cut defense and reestablish the greatest experiment in human freedom ever tried.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Dex:

I was thrilled to see the rejection of the Patriot Act.

I pray these guys have a little chutzpah, but have my doubts watching the budget debate... but one can hope.

westexas said...

Sam Foucher and I have opined on this topic once or twice (copy the links from below to capture the entire link).

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/16459
Texas and US Lower 48 oil production as a model for Saudi Arabia and the world
May, 2006


Texas & Saudi crude chart, with updated Saudi points for 2006 to 2010:

http://i1095.photobucket.com/albums/i475/westexas/Slide10.jpg

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/38948
A quantitative assessment of future net oil exports by the top five net oil exporters
January, 2008 (2007 ASPO-USA Presentation)


Actual Saudi production, consumption and net export numbers (total petroleum liquids) and Sam's projections for same, with updated points for 2007, 2008 and 2009:

http://i1095.photobucket.com/albums/i475/westexas/Slide1-6.jpg

And a recent essay on Peak Oil Vs. Peak Exports

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-10-18/peak-oil-versus-peak-exports

"Given an ongoing production decline in an oil exporting country, based on the ELM we can conclude that unless consumption falls at the same rate as, or at a rate faster than, the production decline rate, the resulting net export decline rate will exceed the production decline rate, and the net export decline rate will accelerate with time. Furthermore, in the case of the ELM more than half of post-peak CNE were shipped only three years into a nine year net export decline."

A fair consistent rule of thumb appears to be that half of a region's post-peak CNE (Cumulative Net Exports) are shipped only one-third of the way into the net export decline period. In the case of the 2005 top five net oil exporters--Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE--Sam's most optimistic projection is that they will have shipped half of their post-2005 CNE by the end of 2014.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

I have your and Sam's stuff on my desktop... and have crawled through it many times... my sense is that he's got it about right, though he did not include Iraq in the stuff I have.

Anonymous said...

Oil $100/bbl
NG $24/bbl equivalent
Coal$16/bbl equivalent

How long until NG and Coal start being converted to transport fuel?

Regards,

Coal Guy

westexas said...

In 2010, I think that the US was the world's third largest net importer of natural gas.

Regarding coal, the US is just barely self-sufficient, and on a tonnage basis we were a net importer a few years ago.

Stephen B. said...

I received that oil press and found the included instructions rather lacking, both in English grammar and lack of illustrations.

Happily, there is a lot of You Tube material on this oil seed press, starting with this one http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ko-IW8SdcKY&feature=related

There seem to be a lot of other video "suggestions" linked to this one too.

Here is the manufacturer's web site: http://www.rajkumarexpeller.com/

It looks like the version of the oil press pictured at the manufacturer's web site has two additional parts including a longer table stand and oil cake chute. 'Not sure how that affects operations compared to the version I got, but I will see.

Stephen B. said...

There's another importer's website with more information too: http://www.piteba.com/eng/index_eng.htm