Saturday, February 5, 2011

Why Egypt won't be another Iran

While things might get ugly as Egypt emerges from years of despotism, it simply will never be another Iran.

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There are no actions without unintended consequences. NEVER. EVER.

Anybody that thinks weight gain is the only negative consequence of our society's drive to force women out of the home has rocks in their head... not to mention a political agenda... and what other results have we been blessed with because of these agendas? Wide spread abortion, divorce, drug use, police violence, and I could easily make an assertion that these agenda's have combined with others and gave us outrageous property, state income, and sales taxes in addition to the monstrosity we have created at the Federal level... all of which have reinforce the almost necessity that women leave their young children to work outside the home.

(The evolution of the modern Corporation also had its hand in all of this... the large, public Corporations were the tax collecting vehicle that funded our governments to grow to the behemoths that they are... these Corporations gave us the big box stores and China supply routes that demolished the small town business owner leaving them and their spouse to become dependent on Wal-Mart employment. In "exchange", the people were able to "evolve" from "citizens" to "consumers". Gee F*&%ing Thanks.)

... and I am not suggesting that people should do one thing or another (I am a Libertarian, after all), only that they will absolutely, positively have to think, and think HARD,  for themselves... because by our very nature these agenda's evolve and if you are not constantly contemplating the forces moving you they might move you in a direction you might not have otherwise chosen. With many of these agendas the individual may have no ability to influence in the Macro sense, and yet can absolutely dominate the issue in the Micro sense.  Self-determination is not really a political slogan, but one that gives support to the idea that the individual can overcome forces that are being projected at the individual.

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Some time back I mused that the rise in Oil prices AND U.S. inventories was perhaps a symptom of a kind of hoarding. Now I am seeing this theory elsewhere on the Web, and by thinking people at that.

This does not mean that Oil prices cannot experience a correction at any time.  They could, IF, and its a big IF, they do I am going to use that event to add to positions in the commodity.  When this Tunisia/Egypt thing spreads to the major Oil exporters, we will certainly experience a significant price shock... but it just isn't easy to time revolutions.  Oil is still a commodity, and commodities, unlike companies, do not earn money directly. Ergo, they have carrying costs and are prone to significant volatility.  "Investing" in commodities is suicide. Trading in them can be profitable for people that know how to take a loss. Of course, you can get shaken out of things like that might have a political driver to them the timing of which simply cannot be known.  That's why you get the big bucks for doing it... cause you might lose big bucks, too. Commodities are a zero sum game, and that needs to be foremost in your mind when trading them.

7 comments:

kathy said...

Off topic but I could use some advice. I make a lot of soft cheese but want to make hard cheese this year. Where did you get your cheese press?

Anonymous said...

I think investing in the Tupi oil field and surrounding fields may be the big ME turmoil play. Even if it is not as big as Gahwar, it isn’t dependant on any of the worlds five big choke points; no small consideration with rising grain costs, and all that it brings with it.

The question is how do I get a pure Tupi play without having any gains offset by ME losses at BP or Exxon?

Best,
Dan

P.s. even if it is as big as Gahwar, it still can’t overcome expenotial growth in demand; at least not for long.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

From a catalog. I will see if i can find it and get back to you.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Petrobras

confederate miner said...

Diamond offshore has a lot of rigs on contract with petrobras and seem to have a good business relationship with them.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

I own them both... but that is not a recommendation.

Anonymous said...

Isn't it hysterical that in any study that indicates that there might be negative effects to children of working mothers, that it become impossible to discern the problem well enough to draw a conclusion. They pass this drek off as science.

I'm quite sure if the REAL finding of the study had been published, the researchers would have been boiled in oil and fed to children of working mothers.

It has been simple and obvious for years. Mom and dad are too tired to cook, so it's McNuggets for the kids, or a bag of chips and a can of Cheez Wiz.

While TPTB harangue the fast food industry, restaurant food in general is much more fattening than food you cook yourself. Fat tastes good. They compete by making the best tasting food for the money. Any time we eat out more than once or twice a week, we start to gain weight. Really, where is the mystery?

Regards,

Coal Guy.