Saturday, January 1, 2011

You are being Prepped for much higher Oil Prices

Look at the number of articles on the front page of the big web aggregators regarding $100 Oil in 2011.

You are being prepped for much higher prices.  TPTB don't want this coming as a surprise... and they want to convince folks that this is OK, the new normal, whatever.... and its the right thing to do (Otherwise you might have crazy people blowing up gas stations to express their anger)... and they are getting it done

There is always one idiot that blames it all on speculators...

The IEA suddenly comes out of nowhere and declares the era of cheap oil is over? And then Iran cut their subsidy for gasoline and diesel? Something brews...

So... How high?  $110 to $200, with $200 being highly unlikely, and $110 being highly likely. It all depends what price is necessary to cause people to alter their driving, flying, and consuming habits.... since it seems that they have become accustomed to $3+ retail gasoline, it would seem that prices could go significantly higher before bringing about those changes in behavior.

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Here's a poignant article written ostensibly about old, old age by someone just entering the senior years.

Read it and THEN consider the perspective of the author - a highly educated in the humanities, liberal, feminist, aging CHILDLESS person.... You know, the folks with all of the answers... except the answer as to who is going to give even the slightest sh#! about her in her old age.

I feel for her... self-inflicited, pompous, and condescending as her life's positions were...

I was reading one of John Michael Greer's pieces recently, where he pointed out to the "raw food"crowd that in every culture on earth people warm their food... there must be a good reason for doing so... I would like to point out to those that think "family" can have many forms... maybe... but it has had only ONE form in almost every culture that ever existed in the history of humanity... certain factions have attacked that form vehemently over the past couple of decades... those people are now coming face to face with their own mortality... I wonder how sure they will be of themselves in their old, old age.

I know this commentary will be met with tooth and fang from certain quarters... I call it as I see it... I am not looking for your vote.

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The Left's other ugly step child, the public employee unions and their outrageous healthcare and retirement benefits have completely worn out their welcome.

When and how this explodes in the face of the True Blue/dumb-as-a-bag-of-hammers when it comes to math, statistics, and economics Left (not questioning their Latin skills) is of little importance... the fact is it is coming, and soon... and it is gonna be BIG.

29 comments:

bureaucrat said...

And in the "we always need someone to blame" department, the present hero of the Republican/Libertarian movement is this Gov. Christie, a guy who always conveniently forgets to mention the other side of his state spending problems which is "too little revenue." God forbid he hurts the multi-billionaires, who continue to get richer and richer sucking the blood out of this country (currently 50% of U.S. income is going to the top 10% of families -- was 32% during the 1950s & 1960s).

You think beating up on the public employee unions and cutting their health benefits are going to stop those employees from getting sick and needing medical treatment? They will just go to the county hospital, and a few just might choose to die right on your front lawn.

Government pensions (so far) are generous, no doubt. I can't wait to get mine in 2024. :) And if I didn't get those better benefits, so that some billionaire can get another tax break, I might just have to join the (violent?) protests saying .. wheres the equity?

Finally, the price of oil going up is indeed a speculative (a nasty word for "investing," but it is the word of the moment) thing. There is no shortage of much of anything today, much less oil (gasoline & diesel) or natural gas.

If you consider the massive amount of debt the last 10 years has created (360% debt to GDP in the U.S., and 270% debt to GDP in Japan), there is no way we can have any meaningful recovery of any type for years. Stimulate all you want -- wont do any good. The problem, which everyone ignores, is debt, debt. debt, which can only be solved with time and bankruptcies.

sushant said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

In the "dumb as a bag of hammers category" lets not forget the folks who brought us massive drops in tax revenue while simultaneously increasing spending ie prescription drug benefit, massive expansion of the national security apparatus, and deep commitment to multiple unwinnable wars on the other side of the globe.

That's right... the "conservatives" who are again parading around as the party of fiscal responsiblity.

Which means that the whole US society is living in a bubble of unreality.

BEST,
Marshall

PS Some good news- Newt Gingrich in his runup to the Presidential race has written a new book which claims that the US has more energy than the rest of the planet combined. Of course we just need to get Big Govt and Dems out of the way in order to cash in on our free homeland energy bonanza.

bureaucrat said...

Marshall .... is this really Marshall? You're starting to sound like an anti-Republican/Libertarian stalwart like myself! ;) Or am I just dreaming?

Dextred1 said...

Marshall,

The democrats wanted a bigger drug benefit than the republicans. If I remember correctly almost twice as big. The dems were going to push it and repubs cut them off on the issue. There were enough softie progressives on the right to help it along and the final vote shows that. It was about staying in power at that point. That is how politics works. Of course you on the left conveniently forget the the deficit is 1.4 trillion this yr. Don’t throw stones when you live in a glass house. Also love how we have now lost more boys under Obama in Afghanistan and he does not take any heat. The left is not anti-war when a dem is in office. All a bunch of political hacks. Did I miss the defense spending going down under obama? You had the house and senate and what exactly got done in the war? We have no almost completely failed in Afghanistan and the surge doctrine worked in Iraq. I am not a supporter of the wars but you clearly are making points for some narcissistic reason to us on here. You also realize that the Health care bill just signed into law is going to be really expensive right? The cbo can only use assumptions that congress gives and so far we have five data points that show the bill will be much, much more expensive even though assumptions said the opposite. The high risk pools are 8 times the price of the estimate 1 yr ago. In the real world people vacillate back and fourth about the role of government and the parties change to respond. When we had plenty of money they wanted everything and now with a shrinking tax base we have to make choices and many of the new candidates are there in response. I hope they make some hay, first thing is I would cut them damn bureaucrats pensions bennies. That is for bur, save us 48 billion a yr you know. :)

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Marshall:

No argument on the wars... the RINO's are just as hypocritical and non-sensical as the Left they purport to oppose.

PioneerPreppy said...

He lost me at calling Bush and the (usual) RINO minority of the Senate and House since 2000 "Conservatives".

Hopefully we now have some true conservatives in but that remains to be seen.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

That's why I used the term "RINO".

WHy is it that when I point out an obvious cluster f**k of the Left, those supporting those people respond with:

"Well, what about the wars?"

How is that germane to the discussion on hand? Either the issue I have brought up and my assessment of it is accurate - or it is not.

And the term "Conservative" is fading away... "Right" still works.

Libertarians are the new new thing, what ever you want to call them.

tweell said...

Seeing that those evil rich folks can move from a high tax state to a low tax state (or to another country), the incessant 'soak the rich' litany from bureaucrat has very little connection with reality. Christie knows that if he starts trying to tax more, those few gold-laying geese left in New Jersey will fly away from the garden state.
Oh noes, the public employees will be in trouble! What about the folks who are already in trouble? Oh noes, the bureaucrats will become violent! Oops! That's already happened, and the people have figured out how to stop it.
http://sayanythingblog.com/entry/seiu_thug_who_beat_up_tea_party_protester_is_asking_for_workers_compensatio/
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/kyle-drennen/2009/08/18/msnbc-no-mention-black-gun-owner-among-racist-protesters
As for me, I've got one more week working for the state. I have paid 10% of my salary into a pension, but it will be bankrupt soon after I start drawing it, according to the latest figures.
I don't feel for the poor aging feminist at all - she made her living tearing down the nuclear family. The damage she did hurt far more than just her. Call her a useful idiot or an evil witch, but she's still not even admitting that what she trumpeted for decades was wrong.

PioneerPreppy said...

Amen Tweel and Greg.

Like I posted the other night the petty state workers started bragging about their pensions and rubbing their age 55 retirement into everybody elses face. Until I mentioned it was billions in the hole and projected to run out of money by 2021 and that date was figured at 8% annual growth until then. Of course then they went to the standard "guaranteed by the court" argument.

If there is going to be any violence just wait till the gov tries to push private sector retirement to 70 or some such age, while allowing government employees to retire at 55. Bur will get his violence then I imagine.

bureaucrat said...

Just to be clear :) ...

I'm no fan of violence. Rocks hurt. Broken windows cost money to replace. But people who find themselves in a corner tend to make desperate choices. I would prefer not to have violence happen. I do tend to admire the French and Brits for taking to the streets (and sometimes tearing up the streets) when the times call for it, however. They still have some balls.

I also feel confident that, in normal times, the RepublicanLibertarians are essentially right: low taxes, less government, lower debt, etc., are always preferred. But the situation we are now in, borrowing every time someone cries foul and needs to be bought off (with borrowed money) is not sustainable. We are slowly reaching that wall where we run the risk of being cut off by lenders. The 10-year yield continues to rise (3.3% now). That is the big "end-of-the-world" indicator you all need to watch. When people don't want to loan anymore to overspending governments and the private sector, the game is over.

Pauk oil would then be just a distraction. :)

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Tweel:

I don't really feel for the aging feminist who actively ridiculed the nuclear family AND actively encouraged a generation of women to f**# up their lives... I do feel for the human being that is facing the reality of those decisions and realizes that her life's belief system was a farce of epic proportion... sometimes we come around to things too late...

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Marshall:

Believe me... if the new Republicans in Congress do not live up to their promises I will shred them here... into nice fillets... we cannot tolerate ANY pol that does not do what must be done...

If they can't count, I will be happy to count for them... and you and I can shout together into the wind that is the internet...

tweell said...

I understand where you're coming from on the aging feminists. I, on the other hand, have had to deal with the fallout from their shiny ideas. The prisons are full of guys who came from broken homes, who grew up with their mother and her parade of boyfriends, not having any parental guidance to speak of. Yes, they are adults now, and responsible for what they do, but I'll save my pity for them.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Tweel:

I got you loud and clear... your career has given you a unique vantage point on the issue... and believe me, I could shred, with pleasure, the absentee fathers that dominate so much of our culture with their failures...

Obviously, you and I were fortunate to have had real fathers to help shape who we are... and not everybody has had this necessary "advantage" and that, in no small part is an unintended consequence of the later feminist movement...

Anonymous said...

And here it is, January 3rd, and oil is up and the markets are up, as if the rising oil prices were a sign of a rosy future. It is 2007 all over again.

It seems to me that debt bubbles will be popping around the globe, or a whole lot of printing will be going on, or both Is the cost of housing coming in line with the cost of commodities by price inflation in commodities? There is little to no inflation in wages. How can this be good? Why aren't the markets scared to death?

Regards,

Coal Guy

Anonymous said...

Oh! Are TPTB pushing news of higher oil prices while shorting in expectation of a crash in China?

Regards,

Coal Guy

Anonymous said...

I've always figured that there were three kinds of information available to me about the markets.

Old Information
Misinformation
Disinformation

Happy New Year!

Regards,

Coal Guy

John said...

There are thirty nematodes (worms) attacking Humans. That is the best reason for cooking your food. If you are not an omnivore, but an organic herbivore, their is even a nematode for you, living on plant leaves waiting for a grazing animal to pass by and take a bite!
In regards to the liberal hippie douchebag woman, Susan Jacoby, I have no compassion for her whatsoever. Her kind has benefitted from the blood of my ancestors while at the same time ridiculing their beleifs and religion( yes I'm a WASP). May she die a slow and painful death at the hands of her Chinese overlords, whom she helped gain the upper hand in the unending war of good versus evil.

westexas said...

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/The-Adam-Smith-Institute-Blog/2011/0102/European-nations-begin-seizing-private-pensions

Anonymous said...

West,

There are plans afoot in the US too. It is criminal. It won't get past a Republican Congress, but 6 or 8 years from now our retirement savings could be in danger.

Regards,

Coal Guy

westexas said...

Of course, there is the Social Security "Trust Fund," which has no objective value, with all of the assets having been spent on other programs.

I suppose that we could ultimately see a mandate that a portion of, or all off, private retirement savings have to be put into new Treasury bonds, at the same time that the Fed is monetizing the debt like crazy.

Anonymous said...

WestTexas,

I believe that the plans are either to force 401k's etc into treasuries or to take them in return for an annuity that is run by the Federal government. Lovely.

Regards,

Coal Guy

Anonymous said...

Nothing is safe while the legislature is in session.

I don't remember who said that.

Regards,

Coal Guy

bureaucrat said...

Hey all you conspiracy buffs!

On 6/1/10, the Federal debt was $13 trillion. SEVEN months later, on 12/31/2010, it hit $14 trillion.

We borrowed $1 trillion in seven months, and that was NOT during an economic crisis like 2007-2008.

All of you brainiacs with children should be ashamed of what you are allowing to happen in this country.

80%$ of Federal spending is on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Interest and Defense. 80% of spending (at least) is on YOU!

Anonymous said...

Bur,

Google:

401k annuity government

They see a pile of money, and they want it. Socialists! Phewy!.

Regards,

Coal Guy

bureaucrat said...

Carbon,

My $286,000 "401k" balance is already in Treasuries. :) 3.3% return right now in our special Federal worker-only "G Fund" that invests in non-marketed Treasury securities (kind of a weird fund -- doesn't gain or lose anything via bond prices. Only increases, from interest.)

Whats wrong with being forced to invest in Treasuries? You prefer the corrupt U.S. stock market? Fannie/Freddie toxic debt? International stock? (which had an awful year)

The U.S. government knows what is best for you. :)

bureaucrat said...

Er, excuse me. I was looking at the wrong thing. Int'l stocks did ok last year.

Anonymous said...

Bur,

It is the being forced part that goes against my grain. You be a slave. I'll pass.

Regards,

Coal Guy