Wednesday, January 5, 2011

‎"When you have "The Truth", then anybody who opposes you is either ignorant or evil. You rule over the ignorant and you kill or lock up the evil. Then you can make the world run according to your perfect "Truth".... On the Left and the Right. Same thing" - Orson Scott Card

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Mutually exclusive events:

"Service Industries Expand by most since 2006"

"Investors Should Fear "Mindless" U.S. Spending, Gross Says"

If it wasn't for the "Mindless" U.S. spending, there would be no expansion of service industries, or any other industry.  The American economy (not the "corporate economy"... over half of the U.S. S&P 500's business is off shore... not so for Main Street) is extremely dependent upon U.S. deficit spending, which in turn is extremely dependent on the International Bond Market, which is the MIRROR IMAGE of the U.S. trade deficit, which is, what? 70% to 80% tied to Oil imports?

This is a very complex set of permutations, the margin of error in the interaction between each of these being quite large... making the future predicting business very challenging.

Still, I think that one of the ultimate outcomes of "Mindless" spending is much higher Oil prices, which in turn will "Truth Out" the amount of excess production OPEC has - or has not.

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This is one of the more important articles you will read this year.

The Constitutionalists have the momentum at the moment.  Can they keep it? Will they be faithful to it? Let us hope, let us pray, and let us do everything we can to support their efforts.

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This morning's front-page-news-"plant" on over treating in healthcare...

What is somewhat more disconcerting than the obvious... is the attempt to manipulate the population prior to a massive policy response.  Not that each and every one of these studies are not accurate; I suspect they are. However, one can see the slippery slope of manipulation being used to move some very disturbing policies forward.

If you are in healthcare, or know somebody who is, forward them these posts and my links... and take it from somebody who spent over 20 years in the financial services industry with no litigation or regulatory derogatories despite those years being an era of never ending witch hunts: It pays to stay WAY out of the grey area.

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22 comments:

The Mad Scientist said...

Happy birthday dude.

PioneerPreppy said...

Is it your birthday Greg? If so Happy Birthday!!!

What I took from the second article was "Beware Judicial Activism" Which is what has allowed this mess.

Unless we get a handle on it no progress towards smaller government and a return to Constitutional rule of law will be possible.

I don't know about other districts around the country but in mine the democratic judges are 90% of the time the ONLY choice for those seats placed by voters. Conservatives need more judges.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Thank you, gentlemen.

Pioneer:

NO QUESTION. specifically a couple of really f*&^ed up SCOTUS decisions that let the Regulatory Genie out of the bottle...

I prefer the terms "Libertarians" or "Constitutionalists", some of the RINO's have given that term a bad name... I think the problem is somewhat deeper... Law Schools are overrun with future "Activist Jurists"... you need to go back to Law School, my friend.

K said...

"The Constitutionalists have the momentum at the moment. Can they keep it?" No. I think that they will they will sell out to the unconstitutionalists, i.e. the banksters, PACs, and other welfare recipients.

"Will they be faithful to it?" No. I think they won't declare war and I think they will continue to fund the Army for more than two years. I think they will also continue other unconstitutional practices, i.e., retroactively legalizing fraud committed by banks and continued funding for the United Police State of America.

As for hope, I agree with George Carlin's idea, "F@ck hope". The protection of America noted by Otto Von Bismark has come to an end, so praying will be in vain.

I think the best way to support them is become rely as much as we can on ourselves, our families, and our friends to live and not on governments and corporations.

K said...

I am mistaken. It seems that Abbé Correa mentioned how God protects drunks, kids, and America, not Bismark.

Dan said...

Happy birthday!

Greg T. Jeffers said...

K:

I truly love when you come around... you are jaded and cynical and for the most part correct.

The "bankster" issue is a real conundrum. I really think when people like Bur and Crybaby say tax "tax the rich" what they are really saying is that our system over concentrates wealth and political power within the Liberal elite who run the banking system in New York... and I don't disagree that that system is FUBAR.

Now what to do about it? What to put in its place? Should we end the Fed? Reinstate a Gold standard?

I gotta say I like ending the Fed... but a Gold backed currency? What happens when they find a bizzilion tons of the stuff in Siberia? Does Russia take over the world? There are untold unintended consequences to these issues... I would suggest that before we tackle them that we, that is folks like you and I, try to establish a political environment and culture that respects our Constitution and questions everything in that light.

I've been noodling this for a while, and I have been voraciously reading on the late 19th century through WWII American history... it seems this period spawned so many of the issues that have "screwed the pup" today.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Overtime I will reduce my thoughts to writing here and would very much welcome your, as well as the other thinking folks here, input.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Dan:

Thank you, sir.

I just passed the big one... and I look forward to the second half of my life!

Anonymous said...

Happy Birthday Greg!

Regards,
Coal Guy

Stephen B. said...

"I've been noodling this for a while, and I have been voraciously reading on the late 19th century through WWII American history... it seems this period spawned so many of the issues that have 'screwed the pup' today."

Hmmmm, that's precisely the time humanity started going nuts for cheap, easy, fossil fuels and electricity.

Nah, there's no connection....none.

westexas said...

If you B-day is the 1/5, you have the same birthday as my grandson. BTW, you were both Twelfth Night babies. We celebrated his birthday with "Lambswool," which is basically wassail + baked apples.

westexas said...

Global Crude Oil Production Versus US Oil Annual Spot Crude Prices
(EIA, crude + condensate)

2002: 67.16 mbpd & $26

2003: 69.43 mbpd & $31

2004: 72.48 mbpd & $42

2005: 73.72 mbpd & $57

2006: 73.46 mbpd & $66

2007: 73.00 mbpd & $72

2008: 73.71 mbpd & $100

2009: 72.31 mbpd & $62

2010: 73.44* mbpd & $79

*Through 9/10 and subject to revision

There was a clear price signal from 2002 to 2005, as oil prices rose from $26 to $57. In response, global crude oil production increased by 6.56 mbpd.

Annual oil prices from 2006 to 2010 inclusive have all exceeded the $57 level, and four of the five years have shown year over year increases in annual oil prices. In response, global annual crude oil production has so far not exceeded the 2005 level, and in fact we have seen a cumulative shortfall--on the order of a billion barrels of oil--between what we would have produced at the 2005 rate and what was actually produced.

But of course the real battle is in the global net export market, and a plausible scenario is that the global supply of Available Net Exports, i.e., the volume of global net exports not consumed by Chindia, is in the process of falling from 41 mbpd 2005 to about 27 mbpd in 2015.

bureaucrat said...

"Liberal elite who run the banking system in New York."

There is no doubt liberal democrats are living in NY, but I doubt they run the biggest banks.

I also have to emphasize that the American rich ALREADY pay a lot of tax. The bottom half of American adults pay NO tax. No doubt many of the rich perhaps even deserve their money (except for the trust fund babies).

But that's not what is in question. If 320 million people in the U.S. decide they want a certain level of spending for SS, Medicare, Medicaid, Defense, education, human services, etc., it has to be paid for. Continuing to borrow $1.5 trillion every year on the backs of the American children who are already starting to figure out the jig is up, is totally unfair.

And if that tax money has to be raised, who has the money?

Anonymous said...

Bur,

The people that run the big banks are by and large liberal. They encourage borrowing, discourage saving, and run the corporate/liberal/fascist mess. Every dollar you save takes a bit of asset value back from them. Every loan you take and every tax you pay increases their wealth and power.

If you think they are operating in your best interest, think again. They pass largess to the masses to keep things quiet while they acquire assets. They promise protection and security. They deliver neither. They want you and me broke (without assets) and dependent. These billionaire men of the people are not your benefactors. They want to be lord and master. Wake up.

De-Nile: A river in Egypt

Regards,

Coal Guy

Dextred1 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dextred1 said...

Jeffers,

As long as the amount of gold never goes over 3/4 to 1 ounce per person it would still be much more stable than any currency we have. Increased supply has not hurt the market yet. It is a solid stable value of wealth relative to almost anything else. Just a thought. Even if a lot was found the value is intrinsic to not only the metal, but human desire.

Bur,

George Soros for starters. You are really out of the loop. The banking ties between dems (clinton/obama) are easy to find. Google obama donations, obamas banking buddy and any other you can think of and watch the articles come up.

bureaucrat said...

I didn't know Soros ran a bank!

If banks want to make loans, why aren't they making any right now? (Fed data and Mish says they are not, cause there is no one asking for any loans.)

We'll have to look for a survey of how many Republicans/Libertarians work in the banking industry. I'll bet lots. Only money-making game in town.

Most liberal democrats would have a bit of a problem sticking these payday loans and subprime house/car debts on the backs of people they know are too poor to pay the money back.

Anonymous said...

You really think that they care!!! They do not. The whole thrust of the bailouts and quantitative easing and increased government spending is to get the bubble growing again. The goal of all of it was to get the public to start increasing aggregate debt. They don't care that the economy recovers, only that we keep handing more to them. What do you think that the big Christmas push is? Do you think that the US economy is helped by having everyone go out and buy Chinese junk? It isn't, but increasing our personal debt hands more to TPTB, and that is what is important. The flow of capital and wealth to China is OK with them, because they are fast figuring out how to get their fat little fingers in there, too. (Or so they think!)

I own a piece of swampland. $75k and it's yours, Bur. Cheap at twice the price.

Regards,

Coal Guy

Anonymous said...

Bur,

Don't confuse the liberal Democrats that you know with the boys who run the show. There is a whole different ethos.

Regards,

Coal Guy

Dextred1 said...

Slimy Alexi -
timmy to short geither - NY fed
Rob Emanuel - 1999, Emanuel was a key player representing Unicom Corp., the parent of Commonwealth Edison, in forging its merger with Peco Energy Co. to create utility giant Exelon Corp. (Goldman, important bur) was also advising Unicom.
William Daley - J.P. Morgan

I can go on and on and on. Soros is a lefty banker type anyways. He might be an investment bank all by himself. Anyways you are lost. You are one of that lefty's that actually think the elite give a shit about you. Useful f*****g Idiot!!!!! They are communists/fascist/puppet masters and obviously work on most in this damn nation. That does not even count all the associations in Fannie and Freddie with Clinton/Obama. They have you convinced the people that want freedom are wrong and the people that steal the money of the people are right.

Seamus said...

As if the Republicans aren't just as bad. Both parties are useless-- one is just better at pretending to care.