Saturday, January 29, 2011

Shot(s) Heard 'Round the World

Is this THE explosion in the Arab/Muslim world?

Egypt, unlike Tunisia, is an important political and economic bastion (Tunisia population = 10mm or so... Egypt = 80mm).  The World's total Arab population is 380 million - and 90 million have just revolted against their despotic governments.  Know what that means?

There is NO CHANCE the Saudi Arabia's monarchy does not fall at some point in the relatively near future (and of course there is always an outlier... but you get the idea).  Given that Saudi Arabia supplies 17% of the world's total Oil export market, AND IS THE WORLD'S SWING PRODUCER, and given that it is really not in the best interests of the PEOPLE OF SAUDI ARABIA (not to mention that the new rulers might not be terribly interested in "The People" either... and that there might be some "turnover", if you catch my drift, at the top in that country), it is reasonable to conclude that a major energy crisis could happen at any time.

AT ANY TIME.

If you have been reading my stuff for any length of time, you should know that I am not an alarmist "doomer".  HOWEVER. If the Saudi monarchy falls, you can count on disaster - gasoline and food hoarding in the extreme. I make no predictions about probability of outcome, only what I said - WHEN (notice capital letters) the Saudi monarchy falls some absolutely incredible things will take place.  These things will be SURREAL.

AT ANY TIME.

Forewarned is Forearmed.

9 comments:

westexas said...

Small correction: In 2009/2010, it looks like Saudi Arabia supplied about 17% of global net export market, but that is still about one barrel out of every six barrels of oil that was net exported worldwide. See detailed numbers at bottom of previous post.

bureaucrat said...

Just a few points in all this ...

50% of Egyptians are under 30. The (Egyptian) Arabs are a relatively young population, worldwide. The average Arab family has 8 children. The power of religion. :)

It is the kids who cause all the trouble in the world. Crime is a "youth thing" (it's why we have had decreasing crime in the US since 1990, no matter what the gun nuts say.) And revolutions are usually driven by the "students" initially. Wanna figure out if a country is gonna have a revolution anytime soon? Look at how young the population is.

So who else has a young population? Iran does. Saudi does. The Palestine area does.

China and India? I don't know those off the top of my head, but I do know 30 million Chinese boys aren't going to be able to find wives (the one-child policy had the sad effect of having girls get aborted in China -- in China, the boys take care of the family, not the girls, like in the US). Can you imagine how dangerous it is with 30 million younger men getting no regular sex? :)

Who NOT have a young population? The US. Canada. Europe. Japan.

The US needs the babymaking Mexicans more and more every day, mostly to save our Social Security system. Only problem is .. the baby machines from Mexico create children, and they cause trouble.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Westexas:

My bad, I meant to say 20 to 25% of export CAPACITY... though, since I doubt their claimed "shut in" in the first place...

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Thanks, I made the correction.

westexas said...

Here is a look at key global net export data + Chindia's net imports for 2005 to 2009:

http://i1095.photobucket.com/albums/i475/westexas/Slide3-1.jpg

Note that Chindia's net imports in 2009 (7.3 mbpd) exceeded Saudi Arabia's net exports in 2009 (7.1 mbpd), i.e., Saudi Arabia's 2009 net exports could not meet Chindia's demand in 2009.

Anonymous said...

Not to be too picky but 90 million people are not revolting. There are revolts in countries with 90 million people. If all 80 million Egyptians were revolting it would already be over. This is why it will be the military that decides the outcome. Whoever the military backs will win and if it splits, they could have civil war.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Anon:

Of course that is correct... noted.

Let me restate - if the governments of 90 million people are overthrown the governments of the remaining 250 million are toast.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

BTW ANon:

Get a nickname or register. Anonymous comments are not welcome here. We don't debate strawmen and Trolls - not that your comments were not entirely reasonable, they were.

BUZZINGSTREET said...
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