Wednesday, December 22, 2010

A Good Laugh with plenty of Egg on the Face

So, as it turns out, its a pretty small world...

The guy that wrote this article, whose position I took exception to in one of my very recent posts, happens to be the older brother of one of my very best childhood friends.  I still speak to the younger brother several times per month, and during these conversations we solve all of the world's problems... the younger brother is a notorious Libertarian while the elder brother, Tim, took a hard Left and lives, unsurprisingly, in San Francisco.  He was always such a brilliant fellow... don't know where it all went wrong... but I look forward to many a spirited debate with Tim Redmond in the future... see if I can't help him get over his faults and find his way home to Libertarianism.  The larger point, obviously, is that we should make our words soft today... for tomorrow we may have to eat them.

I had a good laugh with Tim's brother today...


Moscow's Police Chief Questions Civil Liberties.

There is no other outcome for socialist societies. They have, and will, ALWAYS gravitate to extreme social control. The Left chafe's at the controls and belief systems of the Right, and I don't blame them for the most part... yet feel unencumbered by guilt in the hypocrisy they return.

Best to let self-determination do its thing.


Oil continues to squeeze the economy - Oil is now firmly over $90 - and if the pressure continues the economy will look like any other ugly zit in the mirror.

Nat Gas is making me nuts. Inventories are no higher than last year when prices where nearly 50% higher... the economy is/should be consuming more Nat Gas... the "Shale Guys" are losing their shirt... everybody hates Nat Gas and open interest is at levels not seen in years... all of these things argue for a bottom in Nat Gas.... all except for the price.


I want to talk precious metals for a moment.  The miner's index is not confirming the commodities.  Let me give you MY thought of what MIGHT be going on there... A lot of funds have a huge payday coming, and they have some unbelievable incentive to mop up any sellers prior to 12/31... especially in the smaller, thiner markets - SILVER.

If I am right, then a decent correction in the price of silver might be in the offing for Q1/2011.  BTW, I am not suggesting that I am sure of anything... I have my suspicions, nothing more... and suspicions are NOT investment advice.... but that's my story, and I am sticking to it (but reserve the right to change my mind on a dime).


Margin Debt has risen dramatically, along with stock prices.  However, as a percentage of total U.S. Market Capitalization they appear to me to be an all time high, but I need to find more data to remove the "appear" qualification.  In any event, this data point does not give me a warm and fuzzy feeling.

There has NEVER been an environment quite like the one we are in. Never.  It is ok to take positions... it is ok to be wrong, as long as you are gone if you are... its ok to miss opportunities, too.  The only rule in a market like this is "Do no (serious) harm".  If you keep that in mind, you'll be fine (I hope).

1 comment:

bureaucrat said...

So far everything makes at least some sense to me ...

You have lots of amateur investors (like me) trying to get rich by making the "investment of the century" in one stock or commodity or another (oil, food, metals), and our SPECULATION, often with borrowed money, is driving up prices on things we have plenty of (oil -- for now, food, metals). You're looking for shortages where there are none.

Throw in an economy filled with deflation, dropping ability to pay and credit contraction, plus baby boomers acting like baby boomers and starting finally to save for retirement (which they should have done the last 30 years) instead of buying plasma TVs, and I think we end up with one of the most predictable economic situations in history.

What people don't want to accept is that it takes months, years, decades for what is guaranteed to happen. Be patient. :)