Friday, August 21, 2009

US$ Rally NOT Materializing, Sec of Ed see's it my way

The US$, which has taken it in the shorts of late, has not been able to get out of its own lame and obese way.

I really expect the US$ to rally over the next couple of quarters to years.... BUT! It had better get going - or else.

Or else what?

"Or else"... instead of the deflationary forces we have been feeling we will have those same forces within the credit markets with a nice dollup of hyper price inflation on the import side.

I think that this is what the equity market thinks most likely... hence the rally with as reported numbers yielding a 200x multiple and operating earnings of 20x. That ain't no bargain - unless the US$ is going to continue its decline.

My money says the US$ does indeed find its footing - and the U.S. Equity Markets loses its footing.


He's just viewing things in the mirror of the way I see it.

You heard it here first: Half of the private colleges in the U.S. WILL NOT BE HERE in 2020 (unless they morph into something VERY different from the part time model of learning and training they have espoused over the past 30 years).

Given what's coming, anybody that pays $200k for an undergrad degree - and I don't care if G-D is running the place - is a sucker (0r very, very rich... for whom it just does not matter).


Anonymous said...

How you expect the dollar to rally when the gov't is selling massive amounts of new debt? Last month China reduced their treasury holdings by ~4% and increased their oil imports in July by 40%.

I doubt China has the storage capacity to stockpile that oil, so it probably means they are burning it.

Don't be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.

westexas said...

My daughter teaches biology in a Texas community college, and they are--as one would expect--being flooded with students.

I only half kiddingly told her that many community college admission officers will be saying something like the following in future years, "We are full, but you might try Harvard; I think that they have space available."

kathy said...

Okay Greg. You've had a week off. Now I know it's harvest time and all but where the heck are you? If I don't get my sensible fix from time to time my hands start to shake and I even think about going back to the 6:00 news.

bureaucrat said...

Jeffers has mentioned the wonderful world of owning your own business. Consider all the support small businesses get from Federal and state governments because, of course, everyone feels for the poor, overtaxed small business person.

It's a myth. Buyer beware ...

Anonymous said...

The problem with small business is RUNNING the business. I stand by small business If you can run it. If not, step aside and let someone else try Luckly we still live in a society that allows one to go out and a least try it.

Anyway, why are starting a new thread? Jonesing?!