Friday, August 21, 2009
US$ Rally NOT Materializing, Sec of Ed see's it my way
The US$, which has taken it in the shorts of late, has not been able to get out of its own lame and obese way.
I really expect the US$ to rally over the next couple of quarters to years.... BUT! It had better get going - or else.
Or else what?
"Or else"... instead of the deflationary forces we have been feeling we will have those same forces within the credit markets with a nice dollup of hyper price inflation on the import side.
I think that this is what the equity market thinks most likely... hence the rally with as reported numbers yielding a 200x multiple and operating earnings of 20x. That ain't no bargain - unless the US$ is going to continue its decline.
My money says the US$ does indeed find its footing - and the U.S. Equity Markets loses its footing.
He's just viewing things in the mirror of the way I see it.
You heard it here first: Half of the private colleges in the U.S. WILL NOT BE HERE in 2020 (unless they morph into something VERY different from the part time model of learning and training they have espoused over the past 30 years).
Given what's coming, anybody that pays $200k for an undergrad degree - and I don't care if G-D is running the place - is a sucker (0r very, very rich... for whom it just does not matter).
Posted by The Short Story Man at 6:36 AM