I have been enjoying a couple week break from the farm down here in South Florida. Although it has been HOT, some time paddling a surf board around (there have been ZERO waves) and training Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu at Deerfield ATT has put me in the proper frame of mind to make money in the markets.
Serene.
You cannot see clearly if your mind is not serene; sometimes one still doesn't see clearly (in the markets) even when loaded with serenity...
That said, we have made a substantial, leveraged bet that the U.S. equity market will decline somewhat from here sometime before December 2010.
Hope I'm right. Being wrong really f*&#s with one's serenity.
8 comments:
If we are now all accepting the deflation argument, what is to be done?: as Jeffers has bet, risk (stocks) are to be avoided, all debt is bad, cash should be raised, gold and silver owned as money and a commodity is a good bet, renting instead of owning, living below your means, and raise cash for a cushion. There is still nothing supporting the so-called "green shoots," except for a lot of government spending (yet as a Federal person, things are eerily quiet around my agency -- we had a 2 hour class today on avoiding stimulus spending fraud.) Mish's post today is pushing the U.S. Dollar as strengthening in the next 1-2 years, I'm guessing because all the other currencies of the world are gonna be so bad off. Only bad news for me: in deflations, commodities don't do well. :(
You're really betting against the printing press? That takes nerves of steel!
If the printed money (and credit) all ends up on account with the Fed (which is where it is all going -- the Fed charts are clear), and it doesn't enter the economy for a long, long time, it's not nerves of steel. It's common sense. :) That is not inflationary -- not yet anyway.
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The Fed claims that it is going to quit the long term treasury market by October. I don't believe they will quit, and I believe they have bought far more than $300B already. They are just ending the Announced Official program. They do what they want.
They want wage inflation to keep the house of cards from collapsing. As long as the economy absorbs the new money without inflation they will print.
The problem after the recession in 2001 was that the increased liquidity went to China and the petroleum exporters before being repatriated as Federal and housing debt. There is no reason to believe that this dynamic has changed, except that the savings rate has increased and consumers are cautious.
Until things heat up and interest rates rise, or consumer spending increases at the expense of savings, the stock market will keep rising. We have about six months to go.
Regards,
Coal Guy
Coal Guy:
Boy, do I hope you are wrong... I have laid a fairly large bet down on red...
Tax Revenues will be all and tell all. What is not collected in taxes MUST be collected through bond sales.
Maybe the Fed CAN hold off buying Treasuries for 6 months, but not much longer, and then only with some cooperation from the Creditor nations.
Greg,
You misunderstand me, I think that the Fed is buying treasuries like mad, just not telling. They are pouring money into this economy like mad. And people are saving it.
I just think that we have six, maybe nine months of bliss before the bad side effects of the monetization begin to be seen.
Regards,
Coal Guy
Good post.....
Interesting one.......
thanks for sharin with us......
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DyanaDevis
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