Thursday, August 13, 2009

Update on Bond Market

Early this year I advocated Corporate Bonds over stocks.  Maybe if measured that against the March lows you would have been better in stocks, but since January 1 Corporate bonds have been the best risk reward place to be.

I think that trade is done.

The spread between Corporates and Treasuries has tightened quite a bit lately.  I own Treasuries, and I don't own Corporates anymore.

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All eyes on the US$.  If it rallies versus the 6 major currencies, the equity market will fall.  If it declines, the equity market will continue higher.  Since 97 % of the currency market is negative on the US$ I can't see how this is not close to a bottom.

Unless it isn't.  In which case the recent equity market rally was deserved.




3 comments:

dyana said...
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Lenny said...

G:

I am very confused by all the action. I have no idea what is going on. Yet the accounts keep getting a little fatter. Like you always say, "you can put any trade on in any direction as long as when you are wrong, you are gone-immediately".

LD

RobG said...

I had my 401K in Treasuries but the return is very low. I changed to bonds and the dividends are much better. I guess you are out of bonds because the share price is not moving up correct? But it seems to me the bond offerings prospectus all claim to want to hold the price constant (I'm with Fidelity). I guess I'm saying I thought I understood bonds but maybe I'm wrong.