I am nearly 50 years old, and I have paid in HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of dollars into this boondoggle. When I began paying into the program, the age for benefits was 65, and now for people born in my year it is 67 - the government already stole 2 years of benefits from me. Had I been born 380 or so days earlier, I would reach the attained the age for benefits 2 years earlier. This is one of the reasons I am losing interest in being as productive as I can be - no one likes being ripped off and lied to.
If you have enough money to worry about, it is my opinion you would be better served trying to find a way to preserve what you have, invest in things that will yield you self sufficiency, and stop trying to pay more in taxes. The system is unraveling with or without you - best for you if it does it without you.
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What are you guys, 15 years old? Do you believe in the fu&%!ing tooth fairy? YOUR candidates had no intention of losing power if elected by actually following your wishes - whether silly or sane.
"Close Gunatanamo"? Man, I must have written in my posts a THOUSAND times during the election that I had a better shot of looking good in dance tights than Obama does of closing Gunatanamo in his first term. The LAST thing the Obama Administration wants is to release a Guantanamo inmate who then goes on to blow up a New York City subway station, American Airlines Jet, or execute a high profile assassination (now wouldn't that be ironic). Obama would go down in history as not only the first black president but also the first to be run out of D.C. on a rail. That vote in Congress was just to give him cover.
Guns? Not even worth discussing. If the Left is intent on having the South and the West secede from the U.S. this is as good a place to start as any - and I am only half kidding.
There really is not much difference between Democrats and Republicans in the final analysis. That's why these guys need to manufacture issues to blow some smoke and piss and vinegar up your skirt - gay marriage, flag burning, freedom fries, equal pay - these are the NON issues that carry elections along with Abortion (a real issue) for American politicians. The real issues? The pragmatists usually carry the day.
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This piece from the august National Geographic neatly sums up why FOOD will be an even bigger issue than energy. We don't have to drive to survive, but we do have to eat.
Americans are whistling past the graveyard on this issue. After all, "for amber waves of grain" is in one of our national tunes, isn't it? Yes, we do grow a great deal of corn and wheat - American's probably won't starve (unless a 1930's style drought and 1936 Heat Wave hit), but people in many other countries will and starving people will be somewhat unforgiving of "American Interests" in their countries. Americans might not starve, but Argentine Beef, New Zealand Lamb, and Honduran Mangos might be off the menu, along with a great many other "staples".
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Gold is clearly at an inflection point - again.
If we see a break up to the $1200 range the market would be telling you, in my opinion, of an impending currency crisis. Maybe the Fed can stave it off for a while longer, maybe it can't. But keep your eye on this market for clues, as well as the yield on the 10, 20 and 30 year Treasury Bond.
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I have been posting to this blog for over 4 years now. During that time the American Housing and banking system crashed, the Auto manufacturers were brought to their knees, Gold broke $1,000 and Oil broke $100. The stock market crashed and unemployment soared. Social Security and Medicare wobbled. California quaked, Florida sank, and New York went broke.
If you think this is just a "turn in the cycle" you will deserve whatever comes your way. There is no "cycle" anymore, or if there is it is a "new, new cycle". The system had its "reset" button pressed, and we are in the process of "booting up" (or down). For those of you with a pre-disposition to "stick it out" and "keep your nose to the grindstone", all you are likely to end up with is one seriously ugly nose.
Peak Oil/Peak Imports will happen sooner or later - and long before the Western financial/political system fully rights its ship. How well you interpret the effects of this on your interests will be as plane as the nose on your face over the next decade - the last 4 years were only the warm up band.
Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com
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17 comments:
The GI generation did their part and was sufficiently prolific hence the boom generation. The problem is that the boomers were not and instead preferred mostly unproductive sex, now they will suffer mightily for it.
The demographics is similar to that in the long depression though the Transcendentalists could point to the Civil War as the cause, the boomers have no excuse.
P.s. I think a strong case can be made for placing much of the blame on abortion as 50 Million more young Americans would go a long way toward making the system solvent. Although I agree with your main point, the issues are all BS.
On the food issue I just caught on the news farmers are expecting low yields on wheat and this is hot on the heals of a dud harvest in the southern hemisphere. Looks bleak to me.
The food crisis won't be solved by another Green Revolution based on GM and more inputs. We already turn oil and gas (fertilisers, pesticides and fuel oil in tractors) into food, more of the same won't help as oil gets more expensive.
I think this is another example of the Big Business agenda versus the most effective solutions. Permaculture and horticultural techniques, adapted to local conditions, can match productivity of industrial farming without destroying the land, but they don't help the profits of the big agricultural/oil companies with their government lobby.
But a lot more people will have to live and work on the land. Perhaps we need a retraining scheme for all those out-of-work financial traders and brokers?
Donal:
Local food production as well as local economic production is dimly viewed by the U.S. government as it is very hard to tax, IMHO.
As always, your points are well taken.
Dan:
I am as secular and as Libertarian as they COME - I don't touch it here, but the abortion issue sends me into orbit. Feminism is closing in on Fascism in sheer number of murders.
(Please, folks - don't debate abortion here. You won't change my mind and I won't change yours.)
The exponential function in mathematics is primarily used in real world applications in the population space - weeds in an empty lot if memory serves. OUr system of ever increasing population/pyramid scheme to fund SS and Medicare was doomed to fail from the start.
So...am I figuring correctly here?
1. A disorderly dollar collapse makes the US currency near worthless.
2. A gold-backed Yuan emerges as a (the?) global reserve currency. Or a resource backed basket of creditor/resource nation currencies could emerge.
3. At this point, the dollar is no longer accepted by resource or creditor nations as payment for manufactures or energy exports. Do we use the devalued dollar to buy Yuan with which to pay for oil imports? Or what? Do the oil imports stop if a full blown dollar collapse ensues?
Dan: Don't worry about the number of young Americans.
I happened to be working with a great 19 yo kid from southern Mexico the other day. Came up here to be with his Dad 6 years ago, went to the local school and graduated at 17 and has been working to save money for community college. He's well spoken in English and I presume Spanish and there are thousands like him.
He's just the first wave. Just wait until Cantarelle drops off the cliff.
So there are plenty of young Americans.
The politics of pussy control is a whole other issue.
1) They will accept dollars everywhere so long as we have the most powerful military.
2) There are thousands of Mexican 20 year-olds who are NOT like the guy you mention. All five of my Mexican-American friends/acquaintences (some born here, some born there) have a big problem with showing up on time. Near as I can tell, they all don't get out of bed till noon.
Bureaucrat:
1: Your assumption that $ will be accepted because of our military is just too SILLY to address.
2: Young people have much better things to do than continue to fund 25 years of YOUR retirement, irrespective of where they come from.
My experience with Mexican laborers is somewhat different. I seek them out for any project that requires, strength, stamina, problem solving and a willingness to get one's hands dirty. This is no politically correct throwaway - there are certain groups that I don't bother trying to find the hard worker among - there have been too few in my experience, and I am not constrained with having to hire folks based on some silly model, so I am not compelled to waste my time.
And you honestly believe that Saudi Arabia, our #2 supplier of oil, is going to even HINT at not accepting our dollars because they think they are becoming worthless? Even considering the neighborhood S Arabia occupies? (Or UAE (incl. Dubai) or Kuwait or anyone else that is even remotely Westernized)? The U.S. is mercenary to the world, and every single oil provider (even Nigeria and Venezuela), given enough threat to their countries for whatever reason, will expect (if not demand) help from the U.S. military, and like a bunch of dingbats, we will provide. That's why dollars will be around for looonngg time. To not accept them would be akin to lighting yourself on fire.
Bureaucrat:
Not the relevant issue. Military does not equal $ value.
Bureaucrat:
You may have forgotten that most of the 9/11 bombers were Saudi citizens.
And that American military might hasn't caught Bin Laden, also a Saudi.
And that most of South American oil is now controlled by socialist governments who use CIA and USA as swear words.
And American military might hasn't stopped Mexican illegal immigration, drugs, or the collapse of the rule of Law in Mexico, one of your major oil suppliers.
Military might isn't what it's cracked up to be!
But even all of this WILL be irrelevant when the dollar collapses; the US military marches on imported oil, paid for with borrowed money. Might be a good time to consider starting to be more humble!
Donal Lang said-
"Military might isn't what it's cracked up to be! But even all of this WILL be irrelevant when the dollar collapses; the US military marches on imported oil, paid for with borrowed money. Might be a good time to consider starting to be more humble!"
Dmitry Orlov expands-
"Repatriating and resettling these (Russian) troops turned out to be a logistical nightmare.
But this was nothing compared to the problem that will be faced the US, which has over a thousand overseas bases. The vast majority of these serve no vital purpose and are further examples of massive military bloat.
In the coming years, starved of fuel and other resources, they will become worse than useless. Liquidating them and repatriating will pose a far greater challenge than that faced by the Soviets. Amid the general confusion, some of the smaller military installations are likely to be simply forgotten, with the troops left to fend for themselves and their weapons going missing."
When the dollar collapses, we will trade our products for that which we need from overseas. This will be done on a CASH basis. The US will sell food, buy oil. There will be much less oil.
Contrary to the common wisdom expressed by some on this site, US military strength has been a huge stabilizing force in the world since WW2. I don't necessarily agree with all of the conflicts we've engaged in, but a weak US will not be good for the world in general.
Just look at what's going on in North Korea. Kim was a bit leery the GWB might just bomb him to glowing dust. He made a deal. He has sized Obama up, and no longer has any reservations about pursuing his nuclear ambitions. The deal is off!
China, Russia and Iran all have imperial ambitions. Just what do you think holds them at bay???
That being said, US military might won't bring us a single drop more oil when the dollar fails. But, it just might prevent the middle east from going up in flames and denying oil to everyone.
Regards,
Coal Guy
I'm not sure what the 9/11 bombers being mostly Saudi citizens has to do with it. I do know that when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, we were called it in to reverse that situation -- called in by the Kuwaitis, the Saudis, and the world at large. And ever since then, Saudi oil has flowed to the U.S. (and even Kuwait still sends us 250,000 barrels a day), and oil will continue to flow, priced in "worthless" dollars. :) The U.S. dollar is more than a middle class currency. It represents safety, backed by the U.S. military, to the wealthy of the world. The U.S. is the real "Switzerland." The U.S. dollar will endure. Even the Chinese can't bring themselves to stop buying U.S. Treasuries, cause the people who run China know they may need a refuge someday ... Martha's Vineyard, or perhaps a damn farm, an escape paid for by U.S. dollars. :)
Coal Guy: with less oil there's much less food. Industrial farming has been described as using land to turn oil into food.
You won't want to export ANY food if there's an oil shortage; you won't have enough to feed yourselves!
Bureaucrat: I'd hate to find out you're someone important in the US government!
But rest assured, if the Chinese end up owning farms in Martha's Vineyard, they won't be paying for them!! ;-)
thanks for sharing.......
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Sharon
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