OK. I am ready to kvetch...
Keep your eye on the inventory data (if you aren't sure why it is so important just google it and start reading...), because we are certainly getting some conflicting information.
As the Mad Scientist likes to remind me: Are retailers inventories EVER going to be built back up? NAFC.
Now a steepening of the yield curve should be very good for banks... unless higher long rates hurt housing further.
The stock market is a "Leading Economic Indicator", and right now it is indicating an immanent recovery. Should said recovery not be in the offing, a correction could be pretty brutal. Still, everything, EVERYTHING is priced in NOMINAL dollars (or currency). Are the central banks already successful in re-inflating? Because that is what the equity market seems to believe. Though I disagree, that does not mean I guarantee that I am correct.
The equity rally was fueled by "shorts" that bet big and had to cover. When these guys are done getting their heads squeezed off the truth of it will out. I lacked conviction, so I did not bet either way very big. My funds are up on the year, though not by much, and I intend to keep it that way. Thankfully, I was not so sure of myself, or I would have been one of those "shorts" who now appear as pimple puss all over the proverbial mirror.
There is a time and a price element at work. That there was going to be a rally off of the bottom was a "when" not an "if", but CALLING the "when" took courage, and there where a few head fakes along the way. Could this be a "V" recovery? Anything is possible, but I would bet big against it.
No matter what, nothing is a "long term" hold. If you are wrong, be gone.
Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com
2 comments:
There is no real recovery in the offing, though the "sucker's rally" has made people reconsider buying more stock. This is not a "V" recovery .. it's likely an "L" recovery -- a few years of sideways-ness. What is going to move the U.S. stock market upward? Baby boomers aren't going to buy any more stock after getting screwed (by house prices too) .. Institutional investors can't get any real credit. And Mish's piece today shows consumer credit contracting big time. There is no money out there. Bernanke says the money is there, but it is being hoarded by the banks. Earnings are still crashing and the "For Rent" signs & empty storefronts are still going up in Chicago. The Great Depression had 5-6 false stock market starts. There is nothing to justify this "rally" except the happy springtime weather. It is phoney.
What books did you pick up to learn from in regards to your farm? I imagine some you learnt from doing, but you must have got a base from somewhere. 'The self sufficient life and how to live it' was recomended to me from a friend who rents a cottage on a farm in Germany and grows a reasonable portion of the food she and her son eat.
There are of course degress of self sufficiency, but that particular book seems to give a solid understanding of the basics and more.. i tried to comment on the other site, but you need an ID of sorts..
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