But I just can't take it anymore! I am mad as hell and I am not going to take it anymore... The "Stress Test" of the banks was and is a sham. In order to do said "Stress Test", much like projecting the Federal Budget Deficit, one needs to make "assumptions". The assumptions used for the "Stress Test" where laughable and indefensible.
The U.S. and much of the world is still in the grips of economic contraction, and at the moment it is difficult to tell what the near term risk is: Continued deflation, or a turn toward no-messing-around inflation. When the turn comes, and I won't be able to see it any better than you, said inflation will need some new adjectives that I am not poetic enough to name here.
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They are going to raise capital alright - from their bond holders. The U.S. Taxpayer simply can't take it anymore.
So what is it that the stock market is seeing that I am missing? I know, the market is ALWAYS right, right?
That is, until it isn't.
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You, and I, are being bombarded with a public relations neutron bomb that will destroy your money and leave you alive to regret it. "Green shoots" - Mainstream Media. "Mustard Seeds"- CNBC's Larry Kudlow.
My response to these dirt bags?
"Drop Dead" - Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com
7 comments:
Indian summer
Welcome back. Can see the relaxing time on the farm put the cheer back into you ;)
Yea the market moves seem a bit bizarre to say the least. Manipulation by the ppt? A lot of people seem to think so.
Im staying away from trading for now, nothing seems to make much sense.
I'm still following the Mish reasoning lineup, regardless of the Mish contrarians. This rally is a suckers rally based on nothing but the "need for good news and feelings and happy thoughts." There is nothing fundamental supporting this rally. Earnings are falling thru the floor. I have faith in my pessimism. It worked well for me just before the 2008 stock crash. :) Believe in yourself!
There is no manipulation in the world equity... with the exception of manipulation of the media and economic reporting - such as the stress test.
Markets overreact. That is what they do for a living.
I missed most of this rally because I felt the risk/reward ratio was not too appealing. But I like to short as well as go long... so we shall see.
But back to Oil...
ANybody notice we are nearly halfway through 2009? Another 30 Billion Burned? And another 30 Billion next year? Markets discount things in advance. The $64 question is: When will it discount the Export Land Model?
Lucky for me the stock marketing is "okay" now. Business is going steady. Picking up new clients. Fertilizer is cheap, again.
However,the clients I lost this year, ALL used the excuss of unemployment. My millionaire clients want work, but pay later then usual. Waiting for those monthly checks most likely. Plants are overly priced. Potholes in the roads are going unattended. Friends' and neighbors' vactions and honeymoons are being put of until later this year. The town I live in is talking of cutting services.
The slow slide begins. Until the gas thing hits again...
>ANybody notice we are nearly halfway through 2009? Another 30 Billion Burned? And another 30 Billion next year? Markets discount things in advance. The $64 question is: When will it discount the Export Land Model?<
Sorry. While we are 5 years since the peak oil concept fully hit the internet, the average American has still never even heard of peak oil. I talk about this with all kinds of people, many highly educated, and still nearly 100% of the public is 100% ignorant.
Our great leaders appear to be unable to address any of this. Indeed, they appear incapable of even discussing peak oil in public- probably because they cannot accept the implications of it all.
The US is going off the cliff under full acceleration.
We pessimists who are just trying to acknowledge reality are never going to be the life of the party. Only delight we get is in financial terms when we pick the right energy investment. :) But yes, back to oil --- the gas stations are still filled, and the oil storage methods (including offshore tankers filled with oil) are still overflowing. Something is elevating the pump prices tho. Part of it is the crude price, part of it is more demand. But Jeffrers is right. All five major sources of oil for the U.S. are impaired, and getting more impaired (Canada, S Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela and Nigeria -- and Nigeria just fell off the top 5 list). Just a matter of time before we get to say that refresing line -- "I told you so." :)
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