Sunday, September 21, 2008

Things Change

If the bailout package makes its way through the U.S. Congress, the deflationary scare is over.  If you were playing that trade, it is OVER.  

Inflation will be back - HARD.

This is NOT the 1930's.  The U.S. is not on a Gold standard, an Oil standard, or any other kind of standard.  The Fed and Treasury have unlimited ability to debase the currency, the ability to bring the Fed Funds rate to near (or to) zero, and inflate credit.  If you are not a believer, you will be soon, so don't hold on to losing positions betting on continued deflation.  You would be better off FLAT (no positions).

No, this won't happen overnight (does anything ever?), but it will happen, in  my humble opinion. The entire planet will be following the U.S. on its hyper-inflationary mission, so I like the "stuff" more than any particular currency.

Don't waste time shouting into the wind.  This bailout package is GOING to happen, and it was probably the ONLY rational thing that could have been done.  No, it ain't right, it ain't fair, blah blah, blah... that's life.  Hopefully, Congress won't try to tag it with too much baggage.

For this week, trading is only for the stout hearted, and the VERY disciplined.  If that ain't you, take your football and go home.

BTW... Did I mention that the US$ rally is over? Kaput. Sunk. Glug.

Back soon...

Good Luck! 

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com

13 comments:

Bureaucrat said...

A year ago, GM announced to the world that they were raising the prices of their cars, because the materials to make them (steel) and their labor costs were going up aggressively. Not to long after that, GM threw out that plan cause nobody would pay the higher prices. GM is now trying the "GM employee pricing" thing (substantial discounts). How are prices going to rise in an inflation when no one has the money or credit to buy stuff? How are businesses going to pay their fixed costs with nobody buying anything that isn't on sale? Deflation has a way to go.

Andrew said...

"Hopefully, Congress won't try to tag it with too much baggage."

I want some of what you're smoking Greg. How about this line (from the bailout legislation):-

Sec. 8. Review.

Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.


Its not a bailout, its a huge grab for power with no independant oversight or scrutiny. Its carte blanche authority to break whatever laws they feel like with impunity.

Just like the Iraq invasion, just like the Patriot Act, its being rushed through as a matter of emergency with dire warnings as to the consequences if its delayed or modified.

How you 'merkins stand by and applaud while your freedoms are stripped away - its just beyond me.

Donal Lang said...

You're right about the inflation, and not just because of all those newly-printed dollars. Once this deal goes through, the Gov'ts easiest way to reduce the impact of the bailout is to engineer rapid, deep and long-term inflation to devalue the massive debt.

Bad news if you have savings. Even worse news if your income comes from a pension or investments!

So much for a better world!

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Bureaucrat:

I know you are a deflationist. Good luck! There are 2 parties to EVERY trade, a loser and a winner. If people did not disagree, there would be no trade.

BTW, that was SOOOOOOOO last year!

Things change, markets change, data changes

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Andrew:

NO ONE is happy about this. This is like battlefield triage. THis will cost far more than is being bandied about.

I don't see any other way.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Donal:

Spot on. That is how I see it.

Anonymous said...

There are no atheists in foxholes, no libertarians in a financial crisis, Democrats are Republicans who have been foreclosed and Paul Volcker is one of Obama's financial advisers...he did have a solution for inflation in the '80.
This is like Bush's GWOT, make it up as you go along and scrape your percentage off the top.
As Russian warships head for exercises off Venezuela, I'm sure John McCain can find his FDR moment for the financial crisis and make up for all that Songbird singing in VietNam. The Russians are saying their economic problems are being caused by foreigners attacking their economy.
Looks like the boyz want to play at the next level.

Donal Lang said...

Here's a sobering thought;
If you were to stack up $1,000 bills to make a million dollars, it would make a stack just 4" high.

If you use those same $1,000 bills to make a stack of $700 billion, the cost of the proposed bail-out of the banks and financial institutions, the stack would be 44.2 MILES high!!!

NOW does it sound like a lot of money?

Anonymous said...

Saw this. Please spread the word. better than doing nothing.

When in the Course of human events….

The time is now. We the people must take our country back. No more bailouts. No more foreclosures. No more bankruptcies. No more raping of the people and looting of the People’s Treasury.

The call for action: On October 3rd, 2008 We The People call for a national day of protest. Do not make any purchases. Do not go to work. Do not send your kids to school. Limit all commercial transactions. We need to get our elected officials to understand that We The People will not take any further abuse at the hands of our leaders laying down. Take to the streets.

Please email/circulate to as many people as possible.

publius

Bureaucrat said...

Congress is doing exactly what everyone sent them to Washington to do. Why protest people who are being effective in doing the public's business?

As to passage of the "$1.8 trillion" bailout (I will list all the spending if requested), the calls against it are growing by the minute. It might just not pass in anywhere near its present form.

And if I'm right about deflation, I know Mr. Jeffers has said that he is able to change his mind 180 in a matter of seconds if necessary. Hahaha!

idontnou said...

The proposed financial bailout package being considered by lawmakers will come at a cost of as much as $700 billion.

To put it in perspective, using numbers from the U.S. Census, the $700 billion is equal to:
About $2,300 per American
About $6,000 per U.S. household
About 85 percent of the New York State economy
The combined economies of all U.S. states beginning with the letter "A": Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, and Arkansas; plus Oklahoma.

The tally for all the various rescue measures launched by U.S. authorities this year runs to about $1.8 trillion. The $1.8 trillion is equal to:
About $6,000 per American
About $15,500 per U.S. household

Dan said...

The proposed taxpayer heist/bailout is 700B at any one time, not 700B total; they will be recycling like mad. As a sewage treatment plant the toxic waste will go in one side and come out the other as potent fertilizer.

Anonymous said...

So who is the deep pocket lender who is going to pony up $700,000,000,000 USD to "bailout" the whole corrupt casino?

Vast monetization to bail out a corrupt & extravagant casino society so they can turn more of the world into flaming war zones will not be pleasing to our international creditors.