Friday, September 5, 2008
Not The End of The World
The markets have been getting the stuffing kicked out of them.
My bet is we are close to a near term bottom, and are overdue for a rally. Still, not every industry is going to hold onto their gains, so I would not have a great deal of patience with any particular trade.
Oil does not "feel" as heavy to me. As I look in the commitment of traders report, it looks to me like every speculator with 2 nickels to rub together has fled the country. Of course, OPEC is the ultimate arbiter with help from the global economy.
Silver looks to be cheap, especially compared to Gold with the Silver/Gold ratio at roughly 66, my bet is Silver is an excellent speculative bet. Of course, I said that at $15. Just don't confuse speculating with investing and you will do OK (that means take losses quickly when speculating in commodities). Keep in mind that Silver has not broken its downward momentum, and I like to buy things that are going up and short things that are going down.
The Oil "Shoulder Period" has 6 to 8 weeks to go, but that is when Oil is to be bought. Still, downward momentum has not been broken here, either. The inventory data and position data support a contention that Oil is bottoming... only for the disciplined, though.
Things change, markets change, data changes...
Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com
Posted by The Short Story Man at 1:42 PM