Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Where is Joe Kernan and Larry Kudlow?
The CNBC commentators who have vociferously beaten oil "bulls" about the head and shoulders for the past 2 years are strangely silent. Why didn't Larry Kudlow have his favorite "expert", Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, on his show tonight?
Hey, Joe and Larry, oil hit $112 and change today! Oh, I forgot, you guys TALK, you don't actually RISK.
I had a good laugh today reading UBS's research report for oil over the next quarter. They say we could hit 80 by the end of Q2, but, get this, they were courageous enough to say that they could be wrong because of geo-political reasons.
I will save you the ink of what might be wrong with your prognostications, and inform you what, exactly, is wrong.
You can't count.
That's it. That's your problem. You don't know how to count - and you don't want learn. That would be very bad for business. Because if you actually knew how to count you would have to step up to the microphone and tell your clients that we have a serious energy crisis brewing that is going to wipe the floor with their financial assets. You figure that, since it is going to happen anyway, might as well keep up the whole Emperor's New Clothes gig.
There is a substantial difference between a trader and an analysts.
A trader can, and must, admit when he is wrong, or he won't be trading for long. Believe me, traders are wrong all the time (take me, for example), and they take their losses and go back to the drawing board to figure out what went wrong. Analysts DEFEND bad decisions, and they keep defending them until death do them part.
Want to trade? Practice taking losses. Winning trades are EASY. Its your losers that make or break you. Analysts wouldn't know anything about this - after all, they might not always be right, but they ARE NEVER WRONG.
Yours for a better (post buy, sell, or hold) world,
Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com
Posted by The Short Story Man at 7:34 PM