Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Where is Joe Kernan and Larry Kudlow?

The CNBC commentators who have vociferously beaten oil "bulls" about the head and shoulders for the past 2 years are strangely silent.  Why didn't Larry Kudlow have his favorite "expert", Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, on his show tonight?

Hey, Joe and Larry, oil hit $112 and change today!  Oh, I forgot, you guys TALK, you don't actually RISK.  

I had a good laugh today reading UBS's research report for oil over the next quarter.  They say we could hit 80 by the end of Q2, but, get this, they were courageous enough to say that they could be wrong because of geo-political reasons.

Dear UBS:

I will save you the ink of what might be wrong with your prognostications, and inform you what, exactly, is wrong.

You can't count.

That's it.  That's your problem.  You don't know how to count - and you don't want learn.  That would be very bad for business.  Because if you actually knew how to count you would have to step up to the microphone and tell your clients that we have a serious energy crisis brewing that is going to wipe the floor with their financial assets.  You figure that, since it is going to happen anyway, might as well keep up the whole Emperor's New Clothes gig.

There is a substantial difference between a trader and an analysts.  

A trader can, and must, admit when he is wrong, or he won't be trading for long.  Believe me, traders are wrong all the time (take me, for example), and they take their losses and go back to the drawing board to figure out what went wrong.  Analysts DEFEND bad decisions, and they keep defending them until death do them part.

Want to trade?  Practice taking losses.  Winning trades are EASY.  Its your losers that make or break you.  Analysts wouldn't know anything about this - after all, they might not always be right, but they ARE NEVER WRONG.


Yours for a better (post buy, sell, or hold) world,


Mentatt (at) yahoo (dot) com

 

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

As I look at the rapidly worsening situation in fuels and food I am taken by both at how slow it took to get here and be noticed while at the same time how fast it is spinning out of control. Mark Twain said it best: Things long anticipated will look different when they actually arrive. (or something to that effect)

In the middle of a complete breakdown of the monetary and credit systems, rapidly rising food costs and food riots in some countries and 112 dollar a barrel oil everything is seemingly normal. People are now talking openly about potential problems but they are still not willing to follow the logic and math to the logical conclusion. It is clear to them that A+B and B=C but if you suggest that therefore A=C .... They are not ready for that step baby.
If Oil is necessary for production of food and oil is decreasing per capita then there is going to be less food per capita is simple. They might agree that there will be less food per capita but not their capita. No way. We are merkuns and we have inalienable rights. I hate to say it but we are running out of tricks to keep those rights. There is already hunger in America but so far not at middle class level. This year you will be seeing stories of formerly middle class people going hungry. Once you lose your job, you lose health coverage. You also loose your house and without that you are no longer middle class. You are on the bones of your bum and you are at the mercy of any health event that can't be treated with rest and lemon tea. Welcome to the United States of Argentina.

Sorry about that. Just needed to vent a bit. I am very concerned at how precarious the global financial and energy security situation is. I am in the options markets and it has been very lucrative for me but I can't enjoy making money from other traders when I think that someone out there is priced out of putting food on their tables. Those poor people in Haiti and Burkina Faso ... Just so the people in US can drive around in E85 powered Ford 350s. And when I see a Support Our Troops sticker on one of those it makes me want to scream. I will be coming for a visit to US in July and see how the country is fairing. I am expecting to see some changes this time. Last time it looked fine in the Midwest. A bit ragged on the west coast.

Best Regards,
Chuck H. (he is dead now but I am still going to use his name as nom de plume)

“It’s puzzling why bankers have come up with these new ways to lose money when the old ways were working so well.” --Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Chuck:

Thank you for your comments.

You are welcome to come here and vent anytime! That is precisely what I am doing here.

Mankind has always had difficulties to contend with. This is nothing new. It is my fervent belief that each of us has to take care of our own first, be a good neighbor and citizen.

I am just a "ham and egger" average Joe. Having no power is really not much different from appearing to have power but not really having the ability to do much of anything about anything.

The current system will get whacked, but a new system will arise that takes into consideration the current realities of the time.

In the mean time, each of us will need to be responsible, and walk the walk, as well as screaming into the wind here in the blogsphere.

"Live long and prosper"!

Anonymous said...

IMHO, the only reason that the MSM clowns even bother to say that 'they could be wrong because of geo-political reasons' is they are vaguely worried that more people are figuring out who is paying for their clown makeup and are turning them off forever. I sincerely pity the people who think they will get any useful relevant news from the MSM.

If I am wrong, don't tell me. It is hard enough to get out of bed already. ;)

MonkeyMind