Sunday, April 6, 2008

Dead Cat Bounce

The U.S. equity markets had a pretty good week last week.

Don't let that fool you.  Bear market rally's can be vicious to the upside, and this one might be no different.  I can't make specific recommendations in this forum, but I can say that I would be using the rally to sell non commodity related equities, and even lighten up on some of my favored equity sectors.  The "True Believers" are going to get their finger nails burned off.  It is time to get REALLY sceptical.

You are going to get the full court press from the main stream media and government agencies.  Just remember, in 2oo6 these were the folks that were telling you the housing finance crisis was, what was the word?  "Contained"?  

Making money in the markets is about figuring out what conditions will be like in certain sectors 6, 12, 18 months out - and taking advantage of the other guy's inability to think.  Remember, in most markets, it is a zero sum game... housing, bonds, gold, oil, etc... all of these are zero sum investments - for every winner there is an equal and opposite loser.  Keep this in mind:

"No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor, dumb, bastard die for his country." General George S. Patton

Making money in Oil over the past several years was like snatching a cane off of a blind person.  The media helped to lull the average "blind investor" into a ridiculously false sense of security with stories and articles about Hydrogen cars, Ethanol, Bio-Diesel, Windmills, Solar this, Hydro that... He He He He HA HA HA HA HA!!!!  The MEDIA, GOVERNMENT, AND BIG OIL (among others) are your partners in this obscene farce - USE IT to your advantage!

Of course there will be setbacks and sell offs... but let me let you in on something... wanna know when the Oil rally is over?  When the waiter in your local watering hole and the guy that just parked your car are talking about the money they are making in Oil futures... THAT'S WHEN.

And if you're a member of the dulled and addled brained investor class?  Stay that way... I need the money.

Yours for a better "3 Card Monty" world,

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com

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