Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Text from weekly U.S. Dept of Energy Report

The following is from the U.S. Department of Energy's EIA weekly report:

(Click here to read full report including line items for all products)

"Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending March 28, 2008

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.2 million barrels per day during the week ending March 28,up 72,000 barrels per day from the previous week's average.Refineries operated at 82.4 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production moved higher compared to the previous week, averaging 8.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production remained flat last week, averaging nearly 3.9 million barrels per day.U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 10.3 million barrels per day last week, upnearly 1.4 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged nearly 9.8 million barrels per day, 486,000 barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 944,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 322,000 barrels per day last week.U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 319.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.5 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels, and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels last week. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.3 million barrels per day, down by 1.3 percent compared to the similar period lastyear. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged about 9.2 million barrels per day, unchanged from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand has averaged 4.2 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down 3.1 percent compared to the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 3.7 percent higher over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.The tables that follow display the latest U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet and the most recent 4 weeks of Weekly Petroleum Status Report data. "

I think the key line in the report was:

"Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.3 million barrels per day, down by 1.3 percent compared to the similar period lastyear."

With domestic production slightly higher it follows that imports fell considerably - perhaps 2% lower for the year over year 4 week period.

Mind you prices are some 60% higher for the same year over year period. Shouldn't that have given great incentive to the oil exporters to send us more oil? After all, the dollar did not fall THAT much over the past year.

Hmmm... Remember that pesky oil import crisis I have been ranting and raving about? It sure looks like it is here, or at the very least we are standing on its slippery slope.

Yours for a better world,

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

For those of us who are not all-knowing traders :) can you explain again why you think the net exports model is now starting to come into play, or at least highlight the numbers that indicate this condition has started? Thanks!

Greg T. Jeffers said...

As the EIA report states, total oil supple during the 4 week period was down 1.3%.

U.S. oil supply consists of 2 components: DOmestic production and foreign IMPORTS.

If TOTAL availabilty is down 1.3%, and domestic production is slighy higher, by mathematical necessity import declines would have to be greater than the 1.3% total decline.

COnsidering we have much higher prices there should be no lack of incentive for the competing exporters to increase their sales to us - IF THEY COULD.

It appears to me that they cannot at this point in time. We will have to monitor the data as it comes in.