Wednesday, April 30, 2008

"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the Majority, it is time to pause and reflect" - Mark Twain

It seems I have some high status company in my vision of much higher oil prices.

OPEC's president is warning of $200 per barrel oil. OPEC is not in the "happy" business. OPEC is a stone cold political operation and they are now laying the blame of future $200 per barrel oil at someone else's feet, namely the folks who let the U.S. $ collapse.

T. Boone Pickens, who was an oil Bear recently (his prediction of falling Natural Gas and Oil late last year and early this year led several potential partners for my hedge fund to take a pass. "After all, Greg, Boone is a BILLIONAIRE, he must be smarter than you every time, all the time". Too bad. They missed the best trade of my career) but has recently come around to the prospect of higher oil prices, perhaps as high as $150 by year end.

So, remembering the wisdom of Mark Twain's famous quip, what am I doing now? My usual: I worry (and I have a full head of grey hair to show for it). But I am not going to do much at the moment. Oil prices could certainly come in, and I will miss the trade. I am leveraged to the gills, so any correction might cause me to lose the last few black hairs I have left. Still, despite the new found company of brand-name big hitters, I remain long and (hopefully) strong.

Not enough folks have stopped calling it a "top" for it to be one.

Yours for a better world,

Mentatt (at) yahoo (d0t) com

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