Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Fighting the Last War

The Left and the RINO's have been locked in a death grip, battling to the ends of the universe to control the American people - and the American people have come to terms with this and last night dealt with it accordingly.  The folks continuing to support these 2 groups are out-dated misfits fighting the last war.

The RINO's are done. You can stick a fork in them.  The survivors will "evolve" their views, me thinks... or die.  The "Social Conservatives" that dominated the RINO's are as dead as fried chicken.  Good riddance (unfortunately, these guys have been like "Night of the Living Dead", but I think they are dying off and drying up). The Social Control Left got its socks rocked last night - the electorate put a rocket in their pocket (unfortunately, these folks are still pretty dangerous... they are firmly in control of the humanities and political science departments at the nation's universities from where they will continue to launch all manner of mischief).

The American electorate is waking up to its birthright - a government respectful of the U.S. Constitution.  A government that respects the people's property and privacy - and keeps its hands off our checkbooks AND the doorknob to our bedrooms.

How can one group claim their freedoms are being infringed while in the next breath demand that the government infringe on the rights, freedoms, or property of another?  The Left and the Social Conservatives have been locked in that battle of hypocrisy for decades.

We don't need either party to move to the "center".  There is no such place.  The Republicans have done quite a bit of evolving lately, and it has allowed them to arise from their near-death experience.  The Democrats would do well for themselves and the country if they were to evolve as well.  Peak Credit and Peak Oil are absolutely going to shrink government services, social programs, and the military budget one way or another... this would be an excellent time for the Federal government to begin the transition of power back to the states (who will in turn share a great deal of that new found power with local governments) in an orderly fashion.

America and its Constitution will survive Peak Oil and Peak Credit. Even in the energy constrained future America can thrive and our lives can have meaning and purpose... provided we continue to respect the rights and freedoms of the individual so poetically enumerated in our founding documents.

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From the department of ridiculous stories planted in the media in a bald attempt to manipulate the public... "Tea Party offers GOP a mixed Bag".

MIxed Bag?  HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH HEHEHEHEHEHEHEHE LOL!

It is almost embarrassing listening "true believers" at times.    Christine O'Donnell was/is an embarrassment... and Barney Frank ain't?  Everyone has a kook or 2 in the family.

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Meanwhile, back at the ranch... Crude cleared $85 this morning for front month delivery, and the US$ Index is coming in on multi year lows.  Coincidence?  Somebody, PLEASE, forward my blog to the dip-sh#!'s at the Fed.  $100 Oil will undo EVERYTHING you guys wasted so much money trying to accomplish in the first place... leaving just the debt and bad paper.  And you guys learned this at Princeton?

37 comments:

bureaucrat said...

Everyone keep in mind the summer of 2008 (I remember it vividly). Due SOLELY to speculation (investors bidding up prices on commodities like oil, because they were so EXCITED by the possibility of owning that last barrel of cheap oil) the price per barrel rocketed up to $147. Six months later, it crashed back down to $30. We have the same thing going on now. There is NO shortage of oil and oil products in storage (yet), though I disagree with several on this blog to that fact. Look at the EIA charts for yourself. The cheap money and unbridled enthusiasm are back, bidding up prices of commodities for no reason other that problematic human overexcitement. This is another oil bubble. Watch it crash .. again.

Stephen B. said...

Update from Massachusetts for those who didn't notice:

It was a complete Democratic sweep. Gov. Patrick, our treasurer, attorney general, auditor, all 10 US House seats, every one of the above, incumbent Democrats, were easily reelected, including Barney Frank. Of two ballot questions dealing with cutting taxes, one barely passed (eliminating the double taxation on alcohol), and the other died handily. (It proposed to cut the sales tax, recently raised to 6.25%, back to 3% from its more recent 5%.)

It's another world here today in MA, not that it matters much in the larger scheme of things including Peak Oil, Peak Credit, etc.

Anonymous said...

Hi Stephen,

Yep, it's SSDD here in Massachusetts.

Regards,

Coal Guy

Greg T. Jeffers said...

I don't know how you guys do it... I spent several summers vacationing on the Vineyard and the Cape... but I would rather beat my toes off with a hammer than to give those scum 1 cent of sales tax revenues...

bureaucrat said...

Then pay for the public schools directly. :) And adopt a disabled child (with no cash help from the state). And pay the emergency room bill for an uninsured dad who fell off a roof trying to do a job for someone. And give a retired teacher a hug and $100 towards her pension. That is what state tax revenue goes to. Cut out the middleman, if you find the spending so objectionable. : )

Crybaby said...

This was a nothing election. Voter turnout was too low - 90 million vs. 136 million in 2008. Nothing has changed and there is no new electoral mandate for libertarianism or Republicans or anything else. They did Obama a favor - if Newt Gingrich made Clinton look good these clowns will make Obama look like a genius and sail to re elecion.
Bureaucrat: Im a fan, but the oil rise had more to do with the weakness in the dollar at the time, as well as the money going into ETFs. Wait and see what the Fed does - maybe they have more sanity than the market gives them credit for

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Crybaby:

Is that your studied analysis? That this was a "nothing election"

HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You are freaking hysterical!!

Bill said...

Bur,

I just drove by 7-11 and saw a guy buying gas. Then I went by McD's and there was a family of four buying burgers. I was so happy because I realized people are buying gas and food and I have nothing to worry about.

bureaucrat said...

State tax revenue does not go to buying people gas, nor does it go to MCD for burgers. Your comparison doesn't work.

90% of most states' tax revenue, however, does go to: education (pubic schools), human services (the disabled), the states' share of Medicaid (health care for poor people) and pension payments, mostly for teachers. If Libertarians like Jeffers finds paying taxes for such noble things objectionable, he can pay for them directly ... before all these people wind up on his farm needing services. :)

bureaucrat said...

Er, PUBLIC schools. :)

Anonymous said...

Its the same old boring story that happened in every midterm election of every first term President... Reagan, Clinton Bush... blah blah blah.
The tea party freaks won't be able to accomplish anything since the Democrats control the Senate. If it is so important why didn't the Republicans take control of the Senate?

Dextred1 said...

Anon,

The senate question is simple. If the democrats had to defend all 100 seats the republicans would hold something like a 55-45 majority. Only 37 seats were up for re-election. 18 dem held prior to election and now hold 12 of those seats. That is a 6 seat pick without Rossi and Murkowski (who will caucus with repubs).

The bigger point of the election was not to enact legislation. Republicans want less regulation, so a do nothing congress is a good sign to me. The big hammer in the hand is the ability of the house to not pass a raise of the debt ceiling. Why is this important? The main reason that Obama will veto a repub budget, but if there is no room under debt ceiling the budget will not be able to be kept at previous yrs budget levels which is what happens if there is no budget resolution.

Not to mention that all the dems who are up for reelection in 2012 in the senate just watched a horror show and will vote more moderate. I also think Manchin, nelson and other conservative dems will be inclinded to work with republicans on tax issues, balanced budget, etc.

Dextred1 said...

Not to mention the most important thing in the election no one is talking about "redistricting". The republicans picked up 17 different state houses and senates last night. What do you think is going to happen when these districts are redone for 2012? Michigan loses three seats I think. What is going to happen, simple. They will concentrate the dem votes in the cities, while the outlaying areas will be more represented. The dems did this for yrs and now the republicans can do it while virtually locking out the dems in something like 30 states.

PioneerPreppy said...

This election wasn't about accomplishing anything and I believe most Tea Party supporters understand that. This election was about blocking any more damage. In that regard it was an over whelming success!

The re-district work is a big and I mean huge plus that wasn't common knowledge. Also the lame duck Congress pretty much has no option now but to pass the tax cuts extensions when the repubs bring it up.

Yet as I have stated before if you look at the map the lines are drawing out and the Sectionalism grows.

Even in States such as Illinois you will notice the red areas in the South and how they grew after last night.

The tide has turned and a huge segment of this Nation has proven they are unwilling to roll over or go quietly into the night.

The prelude maneuvers which have been going on for two years just heated up a bit more. Watch and wait for the sparks that will be coming next.

Dextred1 said...

Now the real power behind this mess needs to be dethroned, the FED. Dr. Paul looks like he will get the chair of the monetary policy subcommittie. If it does not change anything at least it will provide some fun c-span clips.

“The money powers prey upon the nation in times of peace and conspire against it in times of adversity. It is more despotic than a monarchy, more insolent than autocracy, and more selfish than bureaucracy. It denounces as public enemies, all who question its methods or throw light upon its crimes… As a result of the war, corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money powers of the country will endeavor to prolong it’s reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed.” – Abraham Lincoln

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Dex:

That quote went up on my Facebook page.

Thanks.

Stephen B. said...

A minor correction to what I posted earlier... I said that every one of the elected Dems was an incumbent. That's not quite right. Some of our elected Dems last night were replacing retiring Democrats (state auditor for example.) Just the same, it was a Democratic sweep.

Dan said...

We have a split house and senate so neither party can ram legislation through yet either party can block legislation. I can’t think of a better outcome. While they are busy fighting each other perhaps they will leave us alone. If you think about it we owe all our liberties to strife amongst the great powers, while TPTB were fighting each other they left us alone.

Anonymous said...

I still find the majority of politics to be likened to debating who won the Professional Wrestling match. Ultimately, the two parties continue to work together on warmongering, patriot act, legislation slanted toward globalism/multinational interests, and both avoid any reality based view of Oil.

Neither party goes after Fed policy with any vigor, so the bulk of the elected are fine with another 600 billion in bonds being bought? I suppose its a private bank, with no transparency that can manipulate the currency--for our own good??

Tribalism is alive and well, except now for most its in the form of political party or sports team.

So is the great recession going to keep inflation at bay to a large degree despite the feds attempts to spark some inflation? Guess only time will tell, but I'm pretty certain this isn't going to create jobs or spark a housing boom.
-Meiyo

Anonymous said...

Meiyo,

I think that downward pressure on wages will continue, but $600 billion of that $600 billion will leave the country since that is about the size of the trade deficit. Eventually, the dollar will lose value, leaving wages the same, but increasing the prices of commodities. Look for higher food and energy tabs. There is no way to stop wage arbitrage. This is one way we get it.

Regards,

Coal Guy.

Crybaby said...

At least you have to give the Fed some credit for giving the Chinese a taste of their own medicine. I mean, two countries can play the game of currency manipulation. Think how much more the Chinese have to pay for oil and gas now. And everyone else hates them and mistrusts them even more since other countries know what's going on between the US and China in terms of a trade-currency war. As far as Mr. Rand Paul, the Ken Doll of the libertarian crowd, and the people who are hoping he will pull a Barack Obama and run for President after one term in the Senate? Not going to happen. We're not close to the point of a true libertarian revolution in the country. And most people are essentially scary cats, they stick with the same old two parties who end up accomplishing very little because they have essentially been neutered by gridlock... more of the same

Greg T. Jeffers said...

No... crybaby/phil/fatkitten... we are not close to a Libertarian revolution in the country... but we ARE close in a number of states... states you have probably never even been to...

Meiyo:

That is absolutely the case with the 2H1P - pro wrestling.

Rather than give up, I think we need to keep putting one foot in front of the other... this is the first real challenge to the establishment in some time

BTW - I don't care about the name of a party... the Republicans are in a pitched battle, and I am supporting the Libertarian element.

tweell said...

Tea party folks in a number of states have figured that it's much easier to take over an existing political party than to try to make another one. In Arizona, we've been going after the precincts and building up. There was even a tea party slate for the water conservation district in local voting. No, we definitely aren't winning even half of the total, but just wait and see what happens in two more years.

westexas said...

For what it's worth, the July to year-end monthly oil prices in 2007 and 2010 seem to be quite similar so far.

EIA spot monthly crude oil prices:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=rwtc&f=m

If the "Cyclical Annual Oil Price Decline" pattern holds (the 2001 price level was about twice the 1998 price level and the 2009 price level was about twice the 2001 price level), then the next year over year price decline would bring us down to the $120 range (average annual).

EIA spot annual crude oil prices:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=rwtc&f=a

Regarding "Speculation," it's interesting that the conventional wisdom is that falling oil prices are always due to fundamentals, while rising oil prices are always due to "Speculation." In any case, one way to filter out a lot of the trading noise is to look at average annual oil prices.

Regarding 2008, I would submit that the primary reason that we average $100 for the year, versus $57 in 2005, was that we saw a decline in global net exports in 2008, versus 2005, with developing regions like "Chindia" taking a greater share of declining net exports, and developed regions like the US taking a lesser share of a declining volume. Not much mystery here.

Rinse & repeat, the US is well on its way to "FREEDOM" from our reliance on foreign sources of oil.

bureaucrat said...

In 2008, a whole lotta 43 year olds (like me) were on the trading desks, mightily borrowing money at low interest rates to invest oil futures, which ran up the price of oil to $147. Only after the Lehman Brothers fiasco showed the emperor had no clothes, did everyone "deleverage," selling anything and everything they could to get cash. The same thing is about to happen very soon.

2008 was NOT about a shortage in oil or oil products. I think Jeffers is wrong in his reading of the EIA data & graphs. There is no shortage of anything right now, except cheap money borrowed at cheap rates to invest in what everybody thinks is the "investment of the century" (oil). It's easy to invest with other peoples' money.

So, try to look at this like a 43 year old hot-shot trader, trying to impress everyone, bidding up what you think is an investment that is going to $500 a barrel! There's no way in the short term oil will go up anywhere near that high, cause those prices would slam down the world economy, and demand for the oil will crater, and the price woudl fall. Long term .. maybe.

There is no shortage of oil ... yet. The gas stations are all filled. The trucks and planes are all operating. And the EIA graphs are clear. :)

Crybaby said...

I think the best thing that could happen in this country is a true geographical/ideological schism such that certain states decide to leave the US - peacefully and on their own terms. I don't think anyone would fight them. That would be a great solution for everyone, and we wouldn't have to hear the contstant BS and political fighting. Go for it.

Anonymous said...

Look at oil and gold. The Fed has weakened confidence in the dollar. How much is too much?

Regards,

Coal Guy

westexas said...

There is no shortage of $85 oil, because the rising price is balancing supply against demand, but the trend lines relative to 2005 are clear. Developed countries like the US are gradually being outbid for a declining supply of global net oil exports.

bureaucrat said...

Not sure if I believe that. The top 5 sources of oil for the U.S. are:

1) Canada -- can't get any closer
2) Mexico -- see above
3) Saudi Arabia -- you may have a point here. :)
4) Venezuela -- being courted by China but it's a LONG way to China.
5) Nigeria -- may have a point on this one too

and several of the next largest (Iraq, Kuwait, Brazil, Columbia, Equador, UK) still like us. Not sure how Angola, Algeria and Russia feel about us.

But in any case, SE Asia, who would buy up a lot of the oil, MAY have a place to play in the future of world powers. But for now, the U.S. is where the dollars are that every country, around the world, wants to get their hands on.

Dan said...

The china trade deficit is really a non issue because we are in complete control. If we want to end the trade deficit all we have to do is stop selling debt; it really is that simple. Cheap junk flows into the US and dollars flow back to china, but the only reason those dollars have value is that represent a claim on real wealth in the US. However, our trading partners refuse to consume goods and services made in the US so they buy our debt instead. If we quit selling them debt then they must buy something else to balance the equation or lose the ability to sell us junk. On the other hand, if China raises the value of the Rembi and we continue to issue debt then it doesn’t help us one iota; someone else will sell us junk we don’t need and buy our debt, with no benefit to us. It would however tank the Chinese economy, which is why they are balking.

On a wholly unrelated topic; I regularly get spam from Amazon trying to sell me something. Today I received one titled “Amazon.com: Barack Obama Toilet Paper Roll” Wipe your butt on the chief- and this is their headline offer. Wow. Just wow.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Crybaby:

Mark these words:

If and when a state declares its independence... The first state to secede will be California.

Greg T. Jeffers said...

Bur:

GIve it a rest, will ya? You can buy $100k worth of oil on the futures market with $10k margin and NO INTEREST COSTS.

Futures ARE NOT EQUITIES. They are not governed by Reg T.

And Bur... there is NO SHORTAGE of $87 Oil! THere is a tremendous surplus of $100 Oil (at the moment) and there is an OUTRAGEOUS shortage $50 Oil.

bureaucrat said...

Anyone see Rand Paul, the Libertarian, this morning on the This Week (ABC) with Amanpour? His answers to most questions were something along the lines of getting rid of Federal employees (cost very little compared) and "we'll have to have a debate on that" on everything else. What a stooge.

80% of Federal spending (SS, Medicare, Medicaid, Interest and Defense) the other senators wont let him touch. He is an empty suit and waste of a vote. Watch him fade. Sorry, Jeffers. :)

PioneerPreppy said...

Getting rid of some federal employees would make him a hero.

I hope he takes suggestions on where to start :)

bureaucrat said...

Pioneer, dont be a hater. :) And you and all the rest know by now that getting rid of ALL of us Feds wouldn't save you anything. That's not where the money really is. But you watch .. when the Tea Party candidates can't come up with any real cuts without cutting their throats (cause most of the money is spent on the taxpayers themselves), they will go for the easy soundbite: blame those awful Federal (and state and county and city) bureaucrats. They are the ones causing all the probs! Suuuurreeee!! Then when that turns out to be zero real savings, then what? Time to look in the mirror.

PioneerPreppy said...

Heh not a hater, your just sensitive I think :)

As for where to start all he has to do is start.

We have went over a number of good places for all of them to start on this blog. Reduce educational spending perhaps limiting student loans to actual citizens or those with better "scores". Ditto with welfare, weeding out false SS and defunding non-citizen medicaid. Getting rid of the Dept. of Energy The list is endless really.

If his bills are blocked so be it then the Tea Party bloc will know who to take out in two years.

Dan said...

Relax Bur,
Just look at the Tea Tasters. Nixon first tried to fire them and failed. Then Carter and Regan both tried to abolish the Federal Tea Board and failed, before Clinton finally got the job done. Trying to trim the federal workforce is a lot like pissing in the wind. Moreover, TIPS had negative rates just a couple of weeks ago; so T-bills have bat sh#% crazy demand. Hell, they’re going to have to hire more bureaucrats just so they’ll have something to do with all the money they’ll raise just trying to keep up with demand.