Wednesday, April 14, 2010
The Deflation Bloggers (of which I am/was one) are sour grapes at having missed the biggest market rally in our lifetimes.
Many of us, yours truly included, saw clearly for a while... and some how lost our way in the markets of late. Yea, my precious metals have done well, but I sold out my paper metal 12% ago (ouch) and missed the equity rally.
There's a lesson here. In the short run FUNDAMENTALS DO NOT MATTER. Technicals do not matter, either. So many of the doom and gloom crowd are disappointed that Bernake et al, have so far, won this battle (the WAR is a different thing)... that's the thing about this business. You have to be able to acknowledge when you are wrong. The market is ALWAYS right.
In Gold/Dow terms the market is NOT up. That, too, does not make us Deflationists look too smart. Oh, well. It is a blown opportunity, and hopefully there will be more blown opportunities with some not blown opportunities in the future.
Not that the Fed was perfect in their moves... they flooded the system with liquidity hoping that the money would show up in housing. That didn't work out so good... the fund's flowed to U.S. equities, Gold, and Oil. Some of that was welcomed, some not. The end game should prove rather interesting... but those defaltionist bloggers? They got this one dead wrong.
The good news is, nobody stays cold (or hot) forever. The markets are open for business every single day, and each day is a new day.... BTW, this is not a "throw in the towel and go long moment"... just venting that I wish I went long equities... that does not mean I would do so now.
Posted by The Short Story Man at 11:38 AM