"Won't be long Now"

While on his deathbed, my late father was receiving a sponge bath from a hospice health aid.  As my father was want to do, he was fussing and complaining and the lady giving him the bath said:

"It won't be long now."

To which my father replied:

"That's what the Moyle said." (A "Moyle" conducts the surgery to remove the foreskin in the Jewish circumcision ritual known as a Briss.)

As far as I know, it was the last thing my father said.  Gotta admire a guy who can crack a joke in that circumstance.

"It won't be long now".

Change happens more slowly than most of us expect (with the exception of how we age), and if the rate of change is slow enough, it appears to us as if everything is "normal" - that there wasn't much change.

If I could load you into a time capsule and head back to June of 2004 and then blink you back to today I bet you would notice a big change.  If I do it over 5 years... yawn....

"It won't be long now."

The next 5 years, and while I think the rate of change will accelerate, will be no different.  You will come to view 2014 as the new "normal".

But what will "change" over that time period?  Will there be an abrupt "change"?  A nuclear explosion on the Korean peninsula?  Or in the Gulf?  A complete dislocation from a currency collapse?  Perhaps, but probably not (unless it does).  These are low probability/high consequence events.  They can happen, but are unlikely - at least individually.  That one of these might occur.... well the probability is somewhat higher.

No, we are more likely to muddle through, with industrial civilization grinding along at a slower, and slower, and slower clip... but 5 years from now, that "slower clip" is going to be significantly slower, especially per capita, for folks in the West, and America in particular.

Imports of Oil into the U.S. have already declined over 10%.  Forget the price; think physics.  Is it possible to get as much "work" done with 10% less Oil?  NAFC. In 5 years the decline, peak to trough, will be more like 30% to 50%.  If you think the Auto industry is hurting now, just wait until there is not enough fuel to wear out our cars.  

Now, think home prices, and their effects on the banking system.  Homes far from employment centers will be abandoned as WORTHLESS.  You don't gain by foreclosing worthless properties.  I could go on and on on the effects PO will have on sprawl, but you guys know the drill.  But the concomitant effects on banking, retail, services, etc... are going to be surreal.

Of course, all of this is tremendously deflationary... but not to worry... the U.S. Budget Deficit is going to more than make up for that.

"Won't be long now."

The economy might be bad now, and it might even improve for a few months here and there, but in 5 years economic output is going to be down - BIG.  There will be winners and losers.  The Leftist PO crowd is out of their collective MIND in thinking that Americans are going to cooperate in huge, politically correct, eco-villages of enlightened former trust fund brats.  Nope, people are going to compete - for sexual partners, for material goods, for land, for political influence - just as we did during Medieval England, Roman Europe, and North Africa's Egyptian empires.  Some of that competition is going to come from some rather unpleasant, non community minded, individuals and groups (MS-13, Russian Mob, La Cosa Nostra, and former police and torture authorities come to mind).

And it "won't be long now".

Could the U.S. plant wind mills and harvest Natural Gas quick enough to offset the decline in Oil imports?  It is not impossible, but the probability is low.  That would require, intelligent, cost effective, not influenced by special interest groups, rational government - have you EVER seen any of that?

It really "won't be long now."

Unemployment, Shlemployment!  What matters is the earnings of the small business owner, and he has NEVER been calculated into the unemployment picture, and those earnings have gone over a cliff and ain't anywhere close to bottom.  Meineke Mufflers, Drive thru Dunkin Donuts, Jiffy Lube Oil Change, etc... there are MILLIONS of these types of businesses, and they are going to go down over the next 5 years like a ROCK IN A POND (much like the car dealers over the last several months).

People will drive less, get in fewer car crashes... not good for insurers or lawyers.  Eat less drive thru fast food... not good for Jenny Craig... Have less and make less money... not good for Tax revenues.

When "won't be long now" happen?  Soon.  Very soon.  

Mentatt (at) yahoo